Based on the analysis of all attached images (especially the main image 1000341653.jpg and supporting data), here is the overall assessment of momentum and price expectations:
### 📊 Comprehensive Technical Momentum Analysis:
#### 1. **Positive Signals (Bullish)**:
- **Long-term Moving Averages**:
- Price (0.24330) > MA50 (0.24010) + MA100 (0.23287) + MA200 (0.23457)
→ **Long-term Uptrend**.
- **Underlying Buying Power**:
- High OBV (1.19B) → **Buyer Accumulation**.
- **Support Pivot Points**:
- Strong support at S1 (0.24241) and S2 (0.24173).
#### 2. **Negative Signals (Bearish)**:
- **Weak Short-term Momentum Indicators**:
- **Negative MACD** (-0.00057) → Immediate Bearish Momentum.
- **Stochastic RSI at 18.98** (Oversold) but not supported by volume.
- **Dangerously Low Volume**:
- 7.86M << Five-day average (75.87M) → **Lack of Conviction in the Rise**.
- **Indicator Discrepancies**:
- Secondary location indicators: STOCH (39.44) and STOCHRSI (30.34) → **Sell Signals**.
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### 📈 Price Forecast (24 Hours):
| **Scenario** | **Probability** | **Levels** | **Drivers** |
|----------------|--------------|---------------------|-------------------------------|
| **Sideways Trading** | 60% | 0.24200 - 0.24450 | Balance between buyers and sellers |
| **Downtrend** | 30% | 0.24000 - 0.23800 | Activate negative MACD signals |
| **Uptrend** | 10% | 0.24600 - 0.24700 | Requires trading volume > 20M |
---
### 🎯 Practical Recommendation:
#### 1. **For Current Buyers**:
- **Sell 30-40%** at 0.24350 (near current resistance).
- **Stop Loss**: 0.24100 (below S2).
#### 2. **For Buyers Looking to Enter**:
- **Entry at 0.24170** (near S2) with 40% of allocation.
- **Additional Conditions**:
- Volume rising above 10M.
- MACD turning positive.
#### 3. **Sell Targets**:
| Level | Action |
|-----------|------------------|
| **0.24440** | Sell 50% |
| **0.24600** | Sell 50% of the remaining |
---
### 📌 Critical Watch Points:
| **Level** | **Importance** | **Role** |
|---------------|-------------|----------------------|
| **0.24450** | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Major Daily Resistance |
| **0.24170** | ⭐⭐⭐ | Technical Support (S2) |
| **0.24000** | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Strong Psychological Support |
### ⚠️ Critical Warnings:
1. **Volume Separation**:
- Price rises (+4.34%) but volume is 90% below average → **Real Weakness in Momentum**.
2. **Indicator Discrepancies**:
- Secondary location indicators indicate "Strong Buy" (10 signals) but immediate indicators (MACD, RSI) do not support this.
3. **Entry Risk**:
- The distance between the purchase price (0.24170) and the stop loss (0.24000) = **-0.7%**.
---
### 📉 Worst-case Scenario (30% Likelihood):
- Break below 0.24000 → Rapid drop towards 0.23800 (Loss -1.4% from entry price).
- Triggers:
- Continued Weak Volume.
- Activate Sell Signals in STOCH/STOCHRSI.
> "Do not trust the trend without volume confirmation" - Wyckoff's Golden Rule.
**Summary**:
- Immediate momentum **suspicious and weak** despite the long-term uptrend.
- **Optimal Strategy**:
- Partial entry only at support 0.24170.
- Partial sales at 0.24350 to reduce risk.
- Wait for trading volume > 15M for a larger entry.
