Solana [SOL] once fell to $173, resulting in a loss of $15 million, before quickly rebounding—indicating buyer resilience.
However, historical trends warn that once SOL breaks through resistance, it often faces rapid selling. Could the current whale sell-off be a precursor to this volatility?
Massive whale selling pressure is becoming apparent.
Ten days have passed in August, and Solana's relative weakness has become very evident.
SOL has been unable to break through the $200 level, rising only 1.07% so far this month, while Ethereum [ETH] has surged 15.75% in the same time frame.
From the quarterly chart, the gap between the two has widened further, with ETH's return on investment reaching 72%, while SOL's return on investment is only 12.8%. In fact, on-chain 'whales' have begun to sell, transferring over 226,000 SOL to exchanges.
Notably, one large holder's assets suffered a massive blow, plummeting 71% in two days, from $24 million to $6.8 million.
This means that SOL's sales amount to as much as $17.2 million, indicating significant selling pressure from individual players.
From a technical perspective, this trend aligns with SOL breaking below $185, forming a solid supply barrier. Additionally, given that the average selling price for whales is around $177, SOL's recent 4% pullback is not coincidental.
The key question now is whether this distribution signifies that bullish momentum is waning, making $200 a difficult target, or if it is merely a brief pause before SOL rises further.
Alameda's SOL redemption has benefited the bulls.
At first glance, Solana's weekly pullback of 2.35% seems small compared to other assets, which may be driven by broader market risk rotation rather than Solana-specific factors.
However, deeper forces are at play. An Alameda Research wallet redeemed $35 million worth of SOL, which had been locked since the end of 2020, when it was valued at $350,000, yielding nearly 100 times.
Nevertheless, SOL's net position remains positive, supporting price consolidation above $170. This contrasts significantly with the previous risk-off period when the net position turned negative, triggering a wave of selling.
The baseline at $170.
This places SOL at a critical inflection point. Buyer depth has not collapsed yet, but selling pressure is clearly intensifying. The synchronicity between large whale sell-offs and redemption activities indicates that the market is coordinating allocations.
If $170 cannot hold as support, downside risks are expected to increase, making Solana a key indicator to watch in the short-term momentum shift.
