“If you missed Bitcoin in 2017, don’t miss Ethereum in 2025.” — On August 6, Wall Street veteran bull and Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee made this bold statement on a podcast, setting a target price of $15,000.
As soon as the words were spoken, ETH seemed to hit the gas:
• In 48 hours, it surged from $3,200 to $3,650, with a maximum daily increase of 14%;
• A total of $270 million in short positions were liquidated across the network, with shorts being “bloodied” again;
• On-chain data shows that over the past 24 hours, whale addresses have accumulated 330,000 ETH, valued at approximately $1.2 billion.
As the market heats up, retail investors are most concerned about three things: can they still chase? Is it a bubble? Why is Tom Lee so bullish? Let's break it down one by one.
Why is Tom Lee calling it a “2017 moment”?
- Institutions are rushing in: His new company Bitmine Immersion Techs (AMEX:BMNR) has swept up 833,000 ETH in 27 days, spending $3 billion, at a pace 12 times that of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin acquisition back in the day!
- Compliance moat: Projects like USDC, Coinbase Base, and Robinhood L2 are all rooted in Ethereum, making ETH the “first compliant public chain stock.”
- Cash flow model: Staking yields about 3%, turning ETH into an “income-generating asset,” which traditional funds love for this “price increase + dividends” double whammy.
How was $15,000 calculated?
Tom Lee provides two paths:
1. Conservative scenario: Demand continues to grow, and by the end of the year, it could reach $7,000~$8,000;
2. Aggressive scenario: If ETH's market cap surpasses Bitcoin, the price could hit $15,000~$20,000.
> “The intersection of Wall Street + AI + blockchain, once it erupts, valuations will break away from traditional frameworks.”
Where is the risk?
- Low leverage ≠ no bubble: Currently, the level of derivatives leverage is indeed lower than in 2021, but the funding rate for perpetual contracts has been in positive premium for 36 consecutive hours, indicating short-term overheating signals.
- On-chain data divergence: Exchange ETH balances have dropped to a five-year low, selling pressure has reduced; however, the average gas price has skyrocketed to 85 gwei, which may raise ecological costs and suppress retail activity.
- Macroeconomic variables: With the Federal Reserve's September meeting approaching, if interest rate cut expectations fail, risk assets will pull back across the board, and ETH will also find it hard to stand alone.
How should retail investors operate?
- Long-term investors: Referencing Tom Lee's point of “at least until the end of the year,” gradually accumulate during pullbacks, with a focus on staking tracks (LDO, RPL) and L2 leaders (OP, ARB).
- Short-term traders: $3,650~$3,700 is a densely packed area from the previous period; if it breaks and stabilizes, then look to $3,850; if it falls below $3,500, bulls need to be cautious.
- Risk control rule: Position in high-volatility assets ≤ 5% of total funds, stop-loss set at -8%.
A one-sentence summary
Ethereum is replicating the 2017 Bitcoin bull market with “Wall Street speed,” but the script always includes the word “volatility.”
Before getting on board, think about where to fasten your seatbelt.
(Risk warning: This article does not constitute investment advice, cryptocurrency assets can be highly volatile, please make rational decisions.)$BTC
