How should we interpret tonight's CPI data? Let Haoge offer his predictions: Overall, tonight's US CPI is most likely bullish for the cryptocurrency market, but we need to consider two scenarios:
High-Probability Scenario (Bullish)
The market expects the CPI to be around 2.8%. If the actual data is in line with or slightly lower, it will reinforce expectations of a September rate cut, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields, a weakening US dollar, and a rapid rebound in risky assets (including BTC and ETH).
I estimate the probability of this scenario to be around 60%-65%, given recent weak US consumption and employment data and the Federal Reserve's willingness to soften policy.
Secondary Scenario (Bearish)
If the CPI is ≥2.9%, especially if the core CPI is also elevated, the market will worry that the Fed will not cut interest rates or even delay a rate cut, which would have a short-term impact on the cryptocurrency market. The probability is approximately 35%-40%.
Trading Tips (Contract Strategy)
Aggressive: Go long with a small position at a low level (e.g., BTC 115k-116k range) before the CPI data is released, and set a stop-loss to bet on a bullish outlook.
Conservative: Wait and see before the data is released, then follow the trend once the results are released. Use short-term, quick entry and exit strategies for both long and short positions to avoid being wiped out by market volatility.
Hedging: If you already have a long position, add some put options or a small short position to hedge against unexpected data surprises.
I personally tend to be bullish and wait, but I don't recommend going all-in. It's best to use low leverage and a fast pace, as volatility is expected to be high tonight, with fluctuations potentially exceeding 3%-5%.
