Regarding tonight's CPI, I'll be straightforward. The U.S. stock market and Bitcoin have been fluctuating slightly these days, just waiting for this data to land. Some say it's risk aversion; I see that the market knows the expectations aren't great, but if it does crash, it won't be too exaggerated.

As for tariffs, I've analyzed before that the market is already desensitized. The core issue now isn't the Federal Reserve making decisions themselves but the conflict between the radical faction led by Trump and the conservative faction of the Fed. As long as the data isn't absurd, they will definitely push towards rate cuts.

Conservatives won't let go of interest rates until they see inflation truly going down, and the result is that when the data is good, everyone smiles. When the data is bad, there's no need to cry because a rate cut in September is almost a done deal. I've said before that since the rate hikes in 2022, the market and the Federal Reserve have never won against each other, but this time it’s hard to say.

Last month, the U.S. core CPI was only 2.9% year-on-year, which is not alarming at all. What everyone is betting on now isn't whether a rate cut will come, but whether it will be 50 basis points or 25 in September. If it's 50, it will directly trigger a super surge, with Bitcoin starting at least from 10,000 points.

Returning to the market, the recent correction in Bitcoin is almost digested. The drop just before the U.S. stock market closed actually increased the spot premium. This indicates that the selling pressure in the spot market has been temporarily released, and new short positions have appeared to provide liquidity.

In the short term, I suggest not to jump to conclusions too early because I still tend to see a consolidation bias towards the bullish side, waiting for the data to confirm. The liquidity in contracts also confirms this point; the new shorts below 124.8K haven't increased enough to trigger a major liquidation.

But as time drags on, it will inevitably become a new liquidation zone. As long as the CPI doesn't produce particularly large negative news, there is hope for BTC to break new highs this week. After all, with such a rise, the liquidity structure still leans towards the bulls.

There is no top divergence at the daily level, and the price hasn't made a higher high. However, the MACD death cross hasn't appeared either, so if you insist on applying technical indicators, it can't be considered a divergence yet.

I prefer to look at the weekly chart. If it doesn't continue to rise here and starts a large-range fluctuation, then it will truly face the danger of a second top divergence on the weekly. So the bulls must seize the opportunity to create a trend; otherwise, dragging it out will be too advantageous for the bears.

As for Ethereum, it's even tougher now. It's just digesting the supply from the high point of 2021. The 4-hour structure is intact, with higher lows gradually forming. You can be bearish on Bitcoin, but being bearish on Ethereum is asking for trouble.

In the ASR channel, Ethereum is oscillating upwards in the pressure zone around 4300, indicating that market demand is eating away at the selling pressure near the previous highs. The last two days have seen movements up to 4330-4370, dropping to 4160, and then rebounding, with each retracement around 170 points, which is indeed quite explosive.

The reason is simple: between 4330 and 4100, 4160 is a strong support. 4222 can only be considered weak support; breaking 4200 is normal, as major players can easily push it down. Therefore, until it breaks 4400, the low long position should focus on entering around 4160, and if it breaks that, wait for 4068.

There is no significant risk in the short term. Below 4200, don't foolishly chase shorts; one rebound and you're done. Ethereum has been retracing evenly for two days, which isn't friendly for those eager to open new positions.

However, every time around 4163 has held up, so as long as you don't chase shorts below 4300, it shouldn't be a problem. The indicators on the daily chart are still quite strong, and there hasn't been any sign of adjustment risk yet, so I continue to look for new highs!