Based on comprehensive market dynamics and technical indicator analysis, Ethereum (ETH) is expected to show characteristics of oscillating upward and high volatility in the coming week (August 12-18, 2025), with the core trend and operational strategy as follows:
📈 Price range prediction
Key support level:
Short-term support: 4,150 - 4,200 (psychological defense line and 4-hour MA100 resonance).
Strong support zone: 4,000 - 4,050 (50-week moving average and institutional cost area), if broken, may test $3,800 (Fibonacci retracement level).
Key resistance level:
Recent resistance: 4,350 - 4,400 (symmetrical triangle breakout target and historical high pressure).
Breakout target: If it stabilizes above 4,400, it is expected to accelerate towards 4,500 - $4,600 (bear squeeze trigger point).
🔍 Technical analysis
Bull-bear game signal:
Bullish advantage:
Moving averages are in a bullish arrangement (MA10 > MA30), MACD histogram turns positive, indicating an increase in short-term buying momentum.
RSI rises to around 70 (overbought zone), if volume continues to increase, the upward trend may continue.
Pullback risk:
Volume-price divergence: Price is rising but trading volume is shrinking, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rise.
Bollinger Bands are narrowing (4,150 - 4,350), indicating volatility is about to explode, and direction choice is imminent.
Patterns and cycles:
4-hour chart forms a symmetrical triangle, current price is close to the apex (4,300), a breakout above 4,350 may trigger a unidirectional trend of more than 5%.
If the weekly closing price is above 4,100, history shows that a new historical high may be created within 1-2 weeks (target 4,800+).
Technical indicator signal interpretation: Price impact MACD histogram turns positive, short-term buying momentum increases supporting the short-term upward trend RSI rises to around 70 (overbought zone) caution is needed for short-term pullback risks Bollinger Bands narrow (4,150-4,350) indicating volatility is about to explode Trading volume Price is rising, but volume is shrinking, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rise.
💰 Market sentiment and fund trends
Institutional funds continue to flow in:
Spot ETH ETF attracts billions of dollars weekly, forming structural buying support.
Whale addresses have increased their holdings by 2.1 million ETH in the past 30 days, completely covering retail selling pressure, improving chip health.
Sentiment divergence:
On-chain data shows a surge in the number of first-time buyers and momentum traders, indicating new demand entering the market.
Leverage risk: High open interest in futures contracts, shorts concentrated above $4,300, a breakout may trigger a $100 million liquidation.
⚠️ Key events and risk reminders
Macroeconomic data driven:
August 12, 20:30 US July CPI data: If inflation ≤ expected (2.8%), it may push ETH to break 4,400; if it exceeds expectations, it may retest the 4,000 support.
Regulatory dynamics:
Ukraine's cryptocurrency regulation bill is under initial review (end of August), SEC's determination of ETH attributes remains a potential negative.
On-chain risk:
Exchange ETH inventory increases (24-hour inflow of 69,400 ETH), short-term selling pressure rises.
💎 Operational strategy recommendation
Breakout scenario (probability 60%):
If CPI is mild + volume breaks 4,350, **go long** target 4,500 - 4,600, stop loss 4,250.
After stabilizing at 4,150 - 4,200, accumulate positions in batches, betting on the medium-term trend.
Pullback scenario (probability 40%):
If CPI exceeds expectations or ETF outflows, short at highs between 4,350 - 4,400, target 4,000 - 3,800, stop loss at $4,450.
Position management:
Leverage ≤ 3 times, avoid heavy positions before and after the CPI announcement (August 12).
💎 Summary
In the coming week, ETH is likely to oscillate broadly in the range of 4,000 - 4,600. A breakout above $4,400 is a key signal for accelerating the trend. The technical outlook is bullish, but caution is needed for pullbacks triggered by CPI data. Institutional buying and ETF funds are core support for the medium to long term. It is recommended to focus on event-driven strategies, strictly set stop losses, and pay close attention to the market reaction after the CPI announcement on August 12.