Bitcoin is trading around $122k — but further movement may depend on several important macroeconomic readings from the United States — CPI, PPI, retail sales, and unemployment claims.
1.CPI (August 12) — expectation: 2.8% y/y (June: 2.7%). A higher than expected reading could strengthen the dollar and pressure BTC; a lower reading could boost the cryptocurrency market.
2.PPI (August 14) — producer price index, which often leads CPI; rising production costs may maintain a more restrictive Fed policy.
3.Unemployment Claims (August 14) — last reading 226,000; markets expect a slight increase to ~229,000. Stabilization or increase in unemployment raises the likelihood of rate cuts — which usually favors cryptocurrency markets.
4.Retail Sales (August 15) — forecast ~0.5% m/m (June 0.6%); weaker data increases the chances of monetary easing — potentially good for risk assets, including BTC.
Hotter than expected data (CPI/PPI/retail) stronger dollar and possible short-term drop in Bitcoin; weaker data → greater likelihood of Fed easing potential upward impulse for BTC.