The current SOL price is at a critical point around $180, breaking through it will initiate a bull market (target $256), while falling below $162 will trigger a 25% sell-off (target $150). Probability distribution of long and short outcomes: breaking $180 (40%), oscillating between $165-$180 (50%), crashing below $162 (10%)
Technical Analysis
Bullish Signal
Price holds at $165 double bottom support (intersection of 50-day/200-day moving averages), hourly chart forms a higher low structure. MACD turns positive and RSI rises to 60, short-term momentum strengthens, not overbought.
If it breaks $180, the resistance levels are $189 → $206 (previous high) → $256 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension).
Short Risk
$172 becomes 'death resistance': three failed attempts in August, with $430 million sell pressure accumulated in the $172-$180 range.
Futures open interest evaporated $4 billion in two weeks, clear signs of large holders withdrawing. SOL/ETH exchange rate plummeted by 50%, with funds rapidly flowing into the Ethereum ecosystem.
Market Driving Factors
Positive news
Visa's global settlement connects to Solana, supporting USDC instant settlement, highlighting its speed and scalability advantages.
Institutional whale DeFi Dev Corp increased its SOL holdings by 91% this month (holding value $200 million), validating long-term confidence.
Negative news
Ethereum's capital absorption effect strengthens: SOL only rose 11.57% in July, while ETH surged 49%. High-net-worth wallets (>10,000 SOL addresses) decreased, increasing retail risk.
Daily active addresses decreased by 16%, ecosystem heat is cooling down, TVL fell 8% this month.
Practical Strategy
Breaking $180 (Bull Market Scenario)
Accumulation point: Daily close stabilizes at $182 (confirms trend reversal).
Target levels: $192 → $206 → $256, holding period 3-5 weeks (in line with Fed's interest rate cut expectations in September).
Oscillating between $165-$180 (Neutral Scenario)
Range Trading: Buy at $168.5 / Sell at $177.2, capturing volatility dividends.
Hedging Risk: Long SOL + Short ETH, to resist sector rotation impact.
Falling below $162 (Crash Scenario)
Stop-loss level: $158 (4-hour chart EMA200 lifeline).
Bottom line: $150 (strongest support in 2025), regular investment at golden dips.
Long-term outlook: Can it break $300 by 2025?
Must meet three major conditions simultaneously:
Technical aspect: Weekly close stabilizes at $225 (breaking a two-year downtrend line);
Fundamentals: Solana spot ETF approved (BlackRock draft submitted);
Macroeconomic: Federal Reserve interest rate cut ≥ 50 basis points (current pricing includes a 25 basis point cut in September).
Achievement Probability: Currently only 30%, if three conditions are met → probability rises to 80%.