ETH latest at $4,253, soaring 18%-21% over the past week, successfully breaking through the key resistance level of $4,300, reaching the highest point since the end of 2021.
$4,300 becomes the core battleground — if the daily closes stabilize, it opens the upward channel to $4,800 (historical high), losing $4,232 will trigger a 10% level pullback to $3,980.
Technical Signal Contradiction
Bullish: MACD bars turn positive and the fast line crosses above the slow line, weekly OBV hits a new high for the year, with continuous inflow of funds; price firmly holds above the 20-day moving average ($3,794), mid-term trend remains intact.
Bearish: RSI reaches 73.76 entering the overbought zone, short-term pullback pressure builds; $4,350-$4,360 accumulates $430 million in sell pressure, forming a 'death resistance zone'.
Core Drivers of the Surge
Institutions Swallowing Chips:
Spot ETH ETF net inflow of $327 million in a week, BlackRock invests $271 million to increase its holdings by 65,000 ETH, and the treasury holdings of listed companies exceed $3.5 billion (tenfold year-on-year increase).
Addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have increased by 15% week-on-week, with a net outflow of 12,500 ETH from exchanges, accelerating chip accumulation.
Regulatory and Ecological Benefits:
SEC clarifies that liquid staking tokens are not securities, removing compliance barriers for staking; Visa global settlement integrates with the Ethereum network, with USDC achieving second-level settlement.
Layer 2 (Arbitrum/Optimism) trading costs down 60%, daily trading volume surpasses 1.74 million transactions, real demand supports price.
Short Squeeze: After breaking $4,200, triggers $110 million in short liquidations, with leverage soaring to a historical high of 0.68, boosting volatility.
Future Path and Operational Strategy
Bull Market Scenario (High Probability): If the 4-hour close stabilizes above $4,360, the targets are $4,460 → $4,800 → $5,000. Holding period 2-4 weeks, in line with the September Fed rate cut window.
Consolidation Scenario: Range $4,232-$4,350. Grid Strategy: Buy at $4,250 / Sell at $4,330, volatility arbitrage.
Crash Scenario: Stop loss after breaking $4,232, bottom-buying range $3,980-$4,020 (institutional cost floor).
Ultimate 2025 Prediction: Is $12,000 Possible?
Three major conditions must resonate:
Technical: Monthly close breaks $6,000, ending the historical cycle top structure;
Fundamentals: DeFi lock-up surpasses $500 billion + L2 daily transactions exceed 100 million;
Macro: Fed rate cut ≥ 75 basis points + 5% pension fund allocation to crypto assets.
Conclusion: The surge in ETH is driven by institutional accumulation, regulatory easing, and the defeat of shorts, with $4,300 being the dividing line between bull and bear. Short-term overbought conditions require caution for pullbacks, but any retracement to $3,980 is a long-term golden opportunity. After breaking $4,800, the market will enter 'price discovery frenzy', and $12,000 is not a pipe dream — provided that macro tailwinds and on-chain fires burn simultaneously.