The recent cryptocurrency market feels like it’s on fast forward, with hotspots exploding one after another — ETH has returned to the $4,000 high after nearly 8 months, SHIB's burn rate skyrocketed by 1800%, and DOGE is being tugged back and forth by whales, with BTC even being called to challenge the dollar's status. Is this wave of market a solid bull market or a fleeting moment? As an experienced analyst, today I will expose the opportunities and traps behind it.
ETH stands at $4,000: Is this the starting point for celebration or just a halftime break?
Last night, when ETH broke through the $4,000 mark, many old players felt their 'DNA stirring' — this is the first time since the bull market triggered by Trump’s election in December last year that ETH has returned to a high point. It peaked at $4,071 in the early hours and is currently stabilizing around $4,030, with a 24-hour increase of 3.78% seeming moderate but hiding key signals beneath.
The core driving force behind this surge, aside from the NASDAQ reaching an all-time high in the US stock market, is the 'spillover effect' (Apple rose 13% in a single week, Nvidia continues to strengthen). More importantly, it is the 'secret maneuvers' of large capital from outside the market. Traditional technical indicators were originally bearish, but real money has rewritten the script — this serves as a reminder for all technical analysts: the cryptocurrency market is never determined by 'indicators', but by the flow of funds, which is the hard truth.
Currently, the market value of ETH has surpassed $486 billion, exceeding ExxonMobil and Vanguard Group, making it into the top 27 global assets, truly a 'pillar of the cryptocurrency world'. However, the reminder from founder Vitalik must be remembered: although the Ethereum treasury has over 60 players hoarding 3 million ETH (worth $11.8 billion), excessive leverage can become a 'dangerous game'. Standard Chartered's favorable mNAV indicator shows BMNR and SBET are reasonably valued, but funds from exchanges are starting to flow out, and there is a significant probability of fluctuations around the $4,000 mark, so don’t blindly chase after rising prices.
SHIB's burning frenzy VS harsh reality: Can it sustain a rebound?
The 'fancy operations' of Shiba Inu Coin are never absent — the burn rate suddenly surged by 1823%, rising for three consecutive days, rebounding nearly 30% from this year's low, peaking at $0.00001315. While burning reduces supply, theoretically it is a deflationary benefit, but the reality is quite 'grim': the price rebound is far less than the craziness of the burn rate, and overall it still struggles at low levels.
Essentially, SHIB's market performance highly depends on community enthusiasm and overall market sentiment. The strength of ETH has indeed brought some rhythm, but to break free from the 'meme coin ceiling', it's not enough to rely solely on burning tokens; we also need to see the ecological implementation (such as progress on layer 2 networks) and whether actual trading volume can keep up. Short-term speculation can be lively, but long-term value must rely on solid logic. Before chasing high prices, ask yourself: are you buying into emotion or potential?
DOGE whale battle: Is $0.23 a hurdle or an opportunity?
The 'cat-and-mouse game' of Dogecoin is in full swing — whales are buying over $200 million in DOGE, with prices fluctuating in the $0.22-$0.23 range. The $0.22 support is strong enough to attract many leveraged bulls; however, the $0.23 resistance is even stronger, causing short-term players to take profits, and institutions even released trading volumes 8 times the average in the last hour.
What’s more concerning is the 'concentration risk': whales hold over 1 billion DOGE (valued at $200 million), close to half of the circulating supply. This means price trends are almost controlled by large holders, making it easy for retail investors chasing prices to become 'bag holders'. At this stage, DOGE is more suitable for observation; wait until resistance or support levels are clearly broken before taking action, and don’t get repeatedly harvested in the fluctuations.
BTC challenging the dollar? The preservation logic is key.
Financial expert Peter Brandt's viewpoint has caused a stir: since the dollar abandoned the gold standard in 1971, its purchasing power has shrunk by 97%, while BTC is becoming the 'digital gold'. This is not just talk — the long-term devaluation of the dollar has investors urgently seeking preservation tools, and Bitcoin's decentralization and fixed supply characteristics indeed fill part of that demand.
But don’t be swept away by the slogan of 'challenging the dollar': BTC's volatility is still far higher than gold, lacking unified regulation, making it unrealistic to replace the dollar in the short term. However, as a long-term value-preserving asset, its logic is increasingly recognized by institutions (for example, as a hedge against inflation in investment portfolios). For ordinary investors, rather than worrying about 'overthrowing the dollar', it’s better to focus on its hedging properties under macro risks — manage your allocation ratio well, avoid heavy bets, and you can remain stable amidst volatility.
Market summary: Find rhythm in the excitement; rationality is more important than passion.
This wave of market has vividly displayed the 'duality' of the cryptocurrency world: ETH's strength has given confidence, but the outflow of funds hides the risk of a correction; the heat of SHIB and DOGE can make quick money, but the lack of solid logical support makes it hard to last; BTC's long-term value is optimistic, but short-term volatility is enough to break the hearts of those chasing high prices.
Remember, opportunities in the cryptocurrency market always coexist with risks. When looking at ETH, focus on the flow of funds rather than just the price; when trading SHIB and DOGE, you must understand community sentiment and the movements of large holders; when investing in BTC, focus on long-term value preservation rather than short-term speculation.
Finally, let’s emphasize: don’t fall for the 'get-rich-quick myths'; pay more attention to fundamentals, the flow of funds, and ecological developments. Understanding trends is not hard; the challenge lies in maintaining rationality amidst the excitement.
Follow me, and I will help you break down more market details in the future, so that every operation is well-informed. The bull market may be on its way, but those who can smile all the way to the end will definitely be those who understand the rhythm and can manage risk.
