Recently, the heat in the crypto world has almost been monopolized by Ethereum. When the ETH price steadily stood above 4600 USD, just a step away from its historical high, many investors suddenly realized: this wave of market might be stronger than imagined. As an analyst tracking the crypto market for many years, today I will break down the core logic behind this strong rebound of ETH, as well as the new changes worth noting in the stablecoin ecosystem.
Institutions vote with real money: ETH ETF attracts 1 billion in a day, and the signal is more important than the price.
The most solid support for this round of ETH rise is not the enthusiasm of retail investors, but the 'frenzied bombardment' of institutional funds. The latest data shows that the daily fund inflow into Ethereum spot ETFs has set a historical record of 1 billion USD, accumulating 8.2 billion USD since the beginning of the year. This number may seem less than Bitcoin ETF's 19.4 billion USD, but the key lies in the 'proportion': 8.2 billion USD accounts for 1.5% of ETH's total market value, while Bitcoin ETF's 19.4 billion USD only accounts for 0.8% of its market value.
What does this mean? The degree of institutional fund tilt towards ETH is almost twice that of Bitcoin. More notably, listed companies are taking concrete actions: SharpLink has appointed Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin as chairman, holding over 360,000 ETH; BitMine has directly transformed from Bitcoin mining to an Ethereum treasury, holding 120,000 ETH; Bit Digital has accumulated over 120,000 ETH. Since June, the total amount of ETH increased by institutions has reached 25 million, which is by no means short-term speculation, but a strategic bet on ETH's long-term value.
In the crypto market, institutional funds often have a sharper sense than retail investors. When traditional capital begins to include ETH in its core asset allocation, it reflects a recognition of the value of the Ethereum ecosystem, whether it’s the continued prosperity of DeFi or the future demand for tokenized assets, ETH's status as the cornerstone of the ecosystem is being revalued.
The technical analysis sends a clear bullish signal: 4400 USD is the key watershed, targeting the historical high.
Having funds alone is not enough; the technical support makes this round of increase more substantial. From the trend, ETH started from the support level of 4150 USD, breaking through 4600 USD, and steadily standing above the 100-hour moving average and the key bullish trend line. The current market consensus is very clear: 4400 USD is the short-term strong-weak watershed. As long as this level holds, the bullish momentum will not weaken.
Technical indicators are equally strong: MACD continues to expand in the bullish zone, with no signs of a top divergence; RSI remains in the strong zone above 50, and has not yet touched the overbought warning line. At this pace, once it breaks through the resistance range of 4650-4750 USD, hitting the historical high of 4800 USD will be a high probability event. Some analysts even believe that if funds continue to flow in, ETH may challenge the 5000 USD mark this month.
However, a reminder here: the closer we get to historical highs, the greater the volatility may be. Short-term investors should be wary of the risk of a pullback after a spike, while medium- to long-term holders should pay more attention to whether the trend continues — as long as institutional funds do not withdraw en masse, technical adjustments are more likely to be opportunities rather than reversal signals.
The stablecoin ecosystem is turbulent: USDC reigns on Ethereum, USDT shifts to TRON, and the compliant newcomer USD1 debuts.
The ETH bull market has never fought alone; the changes in the stablecoin ecosystem also harbor secrets. The latest data shows that the global total market value of stablecoins has surpassed 271.1 billion USD, setting a new historical high, which means the market has ample 'bullets' for future trends.
The most obvious differentiation is: on the Ethereum chain, USDC has officially surpassed USDT to become the largest stablecoin. This is a result of USDC's deep integration with the DeFi ecosystem, with its daily average transaction amount on Ethereum exceeding 20 billion USD, while USDT only reached 12-15 billion USD during the same period. USDC's advantages are clear: transparent reserve proof, compliant regulatory background, and the ecological integration continuously promoted by Circle make it the top choice for institutions and professional investors.
But USDT hasn't been idle either; it has shifted its focus to chains like TRON and BSC. On the TRON network, driven by major exchanges like Binance and Bybit, the number of USDT-TRC20 transactions has exceeded 1 million in a week, setting a new high in several months. This indicates that the trading demand from retail investors remains strong, and TRON's low transaction fee advantage has become USDT's 'second growth curve.'
More noteworthy is the emergence of the new face USD1. This compliant stablecoin launched in the U.S. received 23 million USD in funding just after its issuance on August 6. Although its scale is currently small, its 'fully regulated' label gives it a unique advantage in an increasingly regulated market. As countries tighten regulations on stablecoins, such compliant currencies may become new choices for institutional funds, and their future potential should not be underestimated.
Conclusion: With threefold positive factors overlapping, is the ETH bull market just beginning?
In summary, Ethereum is currently in a threefold positive cycle of 'institutional funds + technical trends + ecological prosperity': institutions express long-term confidence through ETFs and direct holdings, technical breakthroughs open up upward space, and the differentiation and innovation in the stablecoin ecosystem inject vitality into the entire market.
For investors, what is currently more important is to focus on the 'continuity of trends' rather than short-term fluctuations. If ETH can stabilize above 4600 USD, breaking through the historical high will just be a matter of time; while the changes in the stablecoin ecosystem remind us to pay attention to opportunities on different chains, Ethereum's DeFi and institutional scenarios, TRON's retail trading scenarios, may all hide the next wave of dividends.
In the end, it's still that old saying: the hotter the market, the more you need to stay rational. Good position management, rejecting chasing highs and panic selling, is the way to truly make money in this bull market.
Do you think ETH can break through 5000 USD? Which stablecoin do you have more faith in? Feel free to leave your comments and discussions in the comment section. Friends who like and follow, let's track the upcoming market together!
