奔跑财经-FinaceRun
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The market faces multiple challenges: technical oversold vs macro weakness, can the rebound be sustained?
Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown signs of adjustment, with several analytical firms releasing reports indicating that the current market faces multiple challenges.
According to Matrixport's latest weekly report, Bitcoin's momentum has weakened recently, trading volume has shrunk, and funding rates remain at low levels, showing signs of loosening market structure.
Technically, the $112,000 support level is currently under test, and if it fails, it may further decline to the $106,000 range. Although short-term technical indicators show oversold signals suggesting a possible rebound, analysts are more inclined to believe that prices will continue to consolidate sideways.
The market weakness stems from multiple influencing factors. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index has contracted for several consecutive months, non-manufacturing expansion is also limited, and employment data has been significantly revised down, with these key indicators deteriorating, clearly suppressing investors' risk appetite.
Although market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have warmed, there have not yet been clear signals. Furthermore, the net asset value of publicly traded companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin has shrunk, which may limit their ability to continue accumulating through stock issuance, adding additional pressure to the market.
A report from 10x Research further confirms the cautious sentiment in the market. The agency points out that the current market faces challenges such as volatility compression, seasonal weakness, and a lack of macro drivers, raising doubts about the sustainability of recent rebounds in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
While the new policy on cryptocurrency investments in 401(k) accounts promoted by the Trump administration in recent days and the increased focus on gold may change market sentiment, so far, the market reaction has been relatively muted. Ethereum has shown record address activity and price increases, but analysts believe this is more narrative-driven than fundamentally supported.
In summary, both institutions believe that the crypto market is at a critical technical juncture. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both near crucial price levels that could determine future trends, and future momentum could either accelerate upwards or significantly stagnate.
Investors need to closely monitor the gains and losses at the $112,000 support level while paying attention to changes in macro factors such as U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy trends. In the current environment, maintaining patience and waiting for clearer market signals may be a more prudent strategy.
#分析师观点
Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown signs of adjustment, with several analytical firms releasing reports indicating that the current market faces multiple challenges.
According to Matrixport's latest weekly report, Bitcoin's momentum has weakened recently, trading volume has shrunk, and funding rates remain at low levels, showing signs of loosening market structure.
Technically, the $112,000 support level is currently under test, and if it fails, it may further decline to the $106,000 range. Although short-term technical indicators show oversold signals suggesting a possible rebound, analysts are more inclined to believe that prices will continue to consolidate sideways.
The market weakness stems from multiple influencing factors. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index has contracted for several consecutive months, non-manufacturing expansion is also limited, and employment data has been significantly revised down, with these key indicators deteriorating, clearly suppressing investors' risk appetite.
Although market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have warmed, there have not yet been clear signals. Furthermore, the net asset value of publicly traded companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin has shrunk, which may limit their ability to continue accumulating through stock issuance, adding additional pressure to the market.
A report from 10x Research further confirms the cautious sentiment in the market. The agency points out that the current market faces challenges such as volatility compression, seasonal weakness, and a lack of macro drivers, raising doubts about the sustainability of recent rebounds in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
While the new policy on cryptocurrency investments in 401(k) accounts promoted by the Trump administration in recent days and the increased focus on gold may change market sentiment, so far, the market reaction has been relatively muted. Ethereum has shown record address activity and price increases, but analysts believe this is more narrative-driven than fundamentally supported.
In summary, both institutions believe that the crypto market is at a critical technical juncture. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both near crucial price levels that could determine future trends, and future momentum could either accelerate upwards or significantly stagnate.
Investors need to closely monitor the gains and losses at the $112,000 support level while paying attention to changes in macro factors such as U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy trends. In the current environment, maintaining patience and waiting for clearer market signals may be a more prudent strategy.
#分析师观点
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