Bitcoin ($BTC ) is the axis of the crypto ecosystem. Its value sets the market direction: when it rises or falls, it drags altcoins (alternative coins).
I. Mechanisms of Influence
1. Domino Effect:
- Sharp movements in BTC create contagion. E.g.: A 3.68% drop in March 2025 sank altcoins.
- In crisis, investors sell altcoins to buy BTC ('safe haven'); in bullish markets, they rotate towards altcoins seeking profits.
2. Liquidity and institutions:
- $BTC concentrates 43% of the market ($3.5 trillion in 2025).
- Institutional news (e.g.: Bitcoin reserve proposed by Trump in 2024) first boosts BTC and then altcoins.
II. Factors that Modulate Influence
1. Variable correlation:
- In crisis (COVID-2020), BTC and altcoins are strongly correlated (+0.47 with gold).
- Projects with real utility (Ethereum, DeFi) reduce dependence.
2. Regulation:
- Policies regarding BTC affect the entire sector. E.g.: ETFs in the U.S. (2024) benefited the entire market.
III. Key Cases
- 2018 (Crypto winter): 80% drop in BTC dragged Litecoin down (-90%).
- 2021: BTC rally (+300%) boosted altcoins like Polygon (+12,000%).
- 2025: Institutional adoption of BTC (+20%) contrasted with the fall of altcoins after the launch of IA DeepSeek.
IV. Future: Independence?
- Scenario 1: BTC as 'digital gold' (store of value), altcoins as technical tools (DeFi, NFTs).
- Scenario 2: Altcoins with mass use cases (e.g., payments or identity) will reduce their correlation with BTC.
Conclusion
Bitcoin sets the pace of the crypto market, but altcoins like Ethereum gain autonomy with real utility. $BTC marks the trend; altcoins, the opportunity.
💡 BTC vs. Altcoins Correlation
| Event | BTC Change | Correlation| | COVID-19 (2020) | -50% | +0.89 | ETFs Spot (2024) | +120% | +0.65 | IA DeepSeek (2025) | -0.29% | **-0.45**