Key showdown for ETH tonight! 3970 points become the focal point of long and short competition, large funds are already ambushed at 4000 points
Core view:
3900 points are just a decoy, 3970 is the true defense line of the main force. If there is a strong breakthrough at 3970 tonight, it may trigger short covering to push the price to 4000, but be wary of large funds taking the opportunity to sell; if it breaks below 3880, it could quickly drop to the liquidation zone at 3860. Sideways oscillation indicates an impending change in trend.
Key technical levels:
3970 strong resistance level:
Today's three attempts to break through were suppressed at 3970.60, where there are more than 57,800 ETH sell orders, forming a weekly level resistance.
Personal judgment: If the trading volume suddenly increases to 2 billion dollars, currently 1.5 times, it may break through, but beware of false breakouts, as the main force often uses “inducing” tactics.
3900 long and short competition area:
Currently, the 1-hour K-line fluctuates very little at 3905.71-3905.70, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing to 0.5%, indicating an impending one-sided market.
Key signals: Buying power is weak with a net buying ratio of only +0.19%, and the MACD golden cross may be a trap; when prices rise quickly, one should be alert for a short counterattack.
3860 last defense line:
The daily support range of 3880.94-3860.94 is key; if it breaks down with volume, it may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations down to 3750-3700.
News impact factors:
Potential positive: BlackRock submits revised proposal for ETH spot ETF, but the probability of SEC approval is only 30%.
Potential negative: Rumors of leaked U.S. CPI data lead to a large number of hedge funds buying put options.
Large fund movements: An address transferred 80,000 ETH worth 310 million dollars to Binance within 2 hours, posing a risk of dumping.
Operational suggestions:
Aggressive long: Chase long after breaking 3930, target 3965-4000.65, stop loss at 3900.
Stable short: Chase short after breaking 3880, target 3860, stop loss on rebound to 3900.
Sideways risk: If it continues to oscillate around 3905 in the early morning, it is recommended to close positions and observe—change in trend is near.
Important reminder: There are a large number of hidden sell orders around 4000 points, even if it breaks through, it may quickly fall back; it is recommended to take profits in batches above 3980, as greed can easily lead to being trapped.
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