The current situation of Dogecoin is quite complicated. In simple terms, it has been declining for over 1550 days, setting a record for the longest decline in history.
Analyst VisionPulsed recently released a video analyzing its trend, believing that although it is still falling now, there may be a turnaround in the future.
He compared Dogecoin's past price cycles and found that previous declining phases lasted about 1100 to 1200 days, but this time it is noticeably longer. This indicates that Dogecoin is indeed much weaker compared to mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Why hasn't Dogecoin been moving? VisionPulsed believes the key reason is that global liquidity has not truly recovered. Although June's M2 has bottomed out, it has not yet begun to grow significantly, while Dogecoin's previous surges have relied on rapid increases in M2. Ethereum is more sensitive to M2 and has already started to rebound, but Dogecoin is still dragging.
However, he mentioned that if Dogecoin can stabilize its current price by mid-August, there may still be a chance. Historically, Dogecoin has also gone through similar consolidation phases before rising. Additionally, retail interest in Dogecoin is currently very low; for example, related YouTube videos have very few views, which might actually be a signal of a bottom.
Regarding future prices, VisionPulsed provided two predictions:
Conservative estimate: $0.9 to $1.14
Optimistic estimate: $1.5 to $2
He previously thought it could reach $2, but now leans more towards $1.5, depending on the global economic situation.
Finally, he mentioned that the end of the year is usually when cryptocurrency markets start to rally, and there may be fluctuations from August to September. If global liquidity improves, Dogecoin might break through, but for now, patience is required.
In summary: Dogecoin is indeed in a tough spot right now, but it's not completely hopeless. The key will be the funding environment and market sentiment over the next few months. Those looking to buy at the bottom should prepare for the long term and not expect an immediate surge.
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