Powell's Speech on August 22: Is the Crypto World Facing a 'Change of Fate'?
The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on August 22 could very well be a 'life-and-death test' for the crypto market in 2025!
Why do we say this speech is 'nuclear-level'?
The Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting is a 'policy forecast grand stage' for the Federal Reserve. In 2022, Powell made a strong statement here that 'if inflation doesn’t decline, interest rate hikes won’t stop,' which directly caused a global asset crash, halving the price of Bitcoin in six months. In 2013, Bernanke hinted at QE3 here, and gold surged by 9% in a month.
This year's situation is more dangerous than ever. Trump keeps shouting for interest rate cuts, even threatening to 'replace the Federal Reserve Chairman'; the U.S. unemployment rate has surged to a four-year high, yet inflation stubbornly sticks above 3%. The market is now like a gambler who has lost their senses, with the probability of a rate cut in September skyrocketing to 89%, feeling like the Federal Reserve is about to unleash a flood of liquidity tomorrow.
Three possible scenarios: Which one is the most deadly?
Hawkish Surprise: Bitcoin 'Flash Crash' Alarm
If Powell says, 'Inflation is not fully under control, don’t push for interest cuts too soon,' the market would definitely collapse instantly. It’s like everyone is waiting to celebrate payday, only for the boss to say they need to wait a little longer; that feeling would drop from the sky to the ground.
Dovish Illusion: Short-term Celebration, Long-term Landmine
If Powell clearly states, 'Interest rate cut in September,' Bitcoin might shoot up to $150,000 in an instant. But don’t celebrate too early; those Wall Street guys love to play the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' game. By the time everyone thinks the rate cut is secured and buys in, they will seize the opportunity to sell, leaving everyone crying too late.
History may not repeat itself exactly, but it often has similarities. In 2013, Bernanke ignited QE3, and gold soared; in 2022, Powell's hawkish stance caused the Nasdaq to plummet.
This time, the White House is even calculating 'buying Bitcoin to fill the treasury,' with sovereign fund allocations in crypto assets soaring to 1.2%.
In my view, Powell's speech on August 22 is likely not just a turning point for the crypto world but also a signal of traditional finance 'surrendering' to the crypto market.
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