ETH just touched the upper Bollinger band at $3910, only to be hammered back to $3890! The long-short battle at the 15-minute level has entered the 'countdown phase' - bulls charging with the banner of 'breakout means skyrocketing', while bears guard with the sickle of 'drop means crash', each K-line is a gamble for life: Is it a forced short celebration directed by institutions, or a bloody case of retail investors being harvested?
1. Technical analysis: The life-and-death game in the 'cage' of the Bollinger bands
In the 15-minute cycle, the Bollinger bands (20 periods) are narrowing into a death channel
The upper band at $3910.9 is the limit for the bulls' 'siege hammer', previous attempts to break 3915 failed, revealing a decrease in upward momentum (trading volume shrank by 30% compared to previous highs);
The middle band at $3860.59 is the last 'lifeline' for the bulls, current price at $3893 is still above the middle band, but MA5 (3914.76) has turned downward, about to form a dead cross with MA10 (3911.61) - the short-term bull advantage is fading!
Key defense line: If it falls below $3876 (purple support zone), ETH will plunge directly into the abyss of $3810 (lower Bollinger band), where countless bottom-fishing retail investors' 'corpses' are buried; if a strong attack breaks 3915, the previous high of $3968 will become the next hunting target!
2. Capital flow: Are institutions 'baiting' or is it a 'real breakout'?
The institution's 'sunny strategy' is hidden in the details
The 200 million chips bought at $3680-3700 are now stuck at the 3900 level - a price surge could trigger a short squeeze (over 1.2 billion shorts above 3900), but there is also the risk of concentrated selling from low-cost chips in 2023 (average price $1521);
Retail leverage is as high as 5.2 times, and the 100,000 retail investors chasing long positions at $3880-3900 are like 'live targets', once it falls back, the liquidation wave will make the price 'free fall'!
3. My prediction: Short-term 'baiting trap', but still significant movements in the medium to long term!
It now looks more like a trap set by institutions
Bullish signal (needs to be met): Stabilize above 3910 for 15 minutes, and trading volume increase to 1.5 times the previous high (breakout volume), ETH will violently surge, aiming for $3968→$4000 (institution's 'long forcing short' massacre moment);
Bearish signal (has emerged): MA5 dead cross MA10, breaking 3876, the middle Bollinger band is lost, bears will press the price down to $3810, retail long positions will be wiped out!
But don't panic! The mid-to-long term logic remains strong: ETF funds are flooding in, Layer 2 is exploding, and stablecoin ecology is binding, ETH is still the 'crypto financial hub' - a correction is precisely the opportunity to get on board!
