Notcoin (NOT), as one of the most talked-about tokens on the TON blockchain, has undergone a transformation from a viral "click mining" game to a mature crypto asset since its launch in 2024. This article will comprehensively analyze Notcoin's development trajectory, current market performance, price drivers, technical analysis, and future prospects, helping readers understand this unique project that blends meme culture, GameFi mechanisms, and social dissemination experiments. We will start with the origin of Notcoin, analyze how it attracted tens of millions of users in just one year, explore the key factors supporting its price, and provide professional predictions for 2025 and beyond, while also addressing the challenges and risks the project faces.
Notcoin Project Overview: Origins and Core Mechanism
The birth of Notcoin marks a milestone moment in the integration of Telegram and blockchain technology. This project, initially launched as a "click mining" experiment in early 2024 through the Open Network (TON) ecosystem, quickly became the most popular interactive game on Telegram. Its core mechanism is simple yet highly attractive: users can "mine" NOT tokens by simply clicking the screen in the Telegram mini-app, and this low-threshold, gamified design attracted over 30 million users within just three months.
The secret to viral distribution lies in Notcoin's clever combination of several elements: first, instant reward feedback, where each click from users can intuitively translate into token accumulation; second, social dissemination design, encouraging users to promote voluntarily through invitation mechanisms; and most importantly, the seamless integration with the Telegram ecosystem, where users do not need to download additional apps or deal with complex wallet setups—all operations are completed within the familiar chat interface.
Notcoin's token economic model is also quite distinctive. The project employs a no pre-mining mechanism, with 78% of tokens distributed to early participants through gameplay mining, avoiding whale control risks. At the same time, Notcoin implements a full circulation strategy, with tokens fully released upon launch, reducing inflationary pressure but also introducing potential risks of early miner sell-offs. As of June 2025, Notcoin's circulating market cap is close to $187 million, with a daily trading volume of about $38 million, ranking among the top 200 cryptocurrencies.
It is worth noting that the Notcoin team has a clear understanding of the project's positioning. Co-founder Sasha candidly stated at the Token2049 event that the pure "Tap-to-Earn" model is "basically dead," and Web3 gaming is shifting towards more entertaining and social forms. This reflects the team's sharp grasp of market trends and lays the groundwork for Notcoin's future transformation and development.
## Price History and Market Performance: Evolution from Explosion to Stability
Notcoin's price trajectory is a textbook case of volatility in the cryptocurrency market, perfectly illustrating the typical characteristics of meme coins—short-term explosive power coexisting with high volatility. The project experienced explosive growth after its mainnet launch in May 2024, with the price reaching an all-time high of $0.029 on June 2, a staggering 190% increase from the initial price of $0.01, and its market cap briefly exceeding $3 billion. This phase of insane growth was primarily driven by early participants' FOMO (fear of missing out) and social media hype.
However, like the fate of most meme coins, Notcoin subsequently experienced a deep correction. By April 2025, the NOT price had fallen to a low of $0.0017, shrinking more than 90% from its peak. This significant adjustment was primarily influenced by three factors: first, a large-scale profit-taking by short-term traders; second, a cyclical adjustment of the overall cryptocurrency market; and third, market skepticism regarding the sustainability of the pure "click mining" model.
Entering mid-2025, Notcoin's price shows signs of stability, forming a relatively solid support level in the range of $0.0017-$0.0020. Unlike many fleeting meme coins, Notcoin has avoided the fate of rapid decline after issuance; this price resilience indicates that the project has transcended being purely a speculative tool and is beginning to establish actual value support based on the TON ecosystem.
In May 2025, Notcoin saw a cyclical price recovery, climbing from $0.0016 to the range of $0.0031-$0.0035, with a 30-day increase of 46.29%. This rebound was closely related to a surge in DeFi activities on the TON chain and coincided with the project's first-anniversary celebrations, including a two-week free giveaway event (distributing over 10,000 gift boxes). The technicals indicated that NOT was facing a key resistance level at $0.003, breaking through which could challenge $0.005, while a drop below the $0.0015 support could retreat to $0.0012.
In terms of trading activity, Notcoin's 24-hour trading volume/market cap ratio reached 15.81%, indicating relatively healthy liquidity. Notably, during a surge at the end of May 2025, NOT's 24-hour total network trading volume peaked at $4.635 billion, ranking fourth in the entire network, only behind USDT, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. This unusually high trading volume indicates that Notcoin can attract market attention and capital flow far exceeding its market cap during specific periods.
## Current Price Drivers: The Four Pillars Supporting NOT's Value
Notcoin's price performance in mid-2025 is not coincidental but the result of a series of interrelated fundamental factors. Deeply understanding these driving factors is crucial for predicting NOT's future trajectory.
The Telegram user base constitutes the strongest value support for Notcoin. As of June 2025, over 35 million users have interacted through Notcoin's Telegram mini-app. This massive user group not only provides continuous on-chain activity and social mentions but also represents a potential pipeline for future adoption. As Telegram deepens its Web3 integration strategy, Notcoin is expected to become the flagship token for in-app microtransactions. Considering Telegram's super traffic pool of over 700 million monthly active users, even a small percentage of conversion could significantly impact NOT's demand.
Speculative momentum is another key variable affecting NOT's price. Many users view Notcoin as a "free airdrop" asset since the tokens are primarily obtained through gameplay rather than real monetary investment. This psychological accounting effect significantly lowers the selling resistance for holders, fostering more active speculative trading behavior. Data indicates that Notcoin continues to maintain popularity among retail and short-term traders seeking high volatility opportunities. Especially during the "altcoin season," when Bitcoin's dominance wanes, NOT often attracts more capital inflow.
The overall development status of the TON ecosystem shows an increasingly strong correlation with NOT's price performance. Developer activity on the TON blockchain significantly increased in 2025, receiving strong support from Telegram. As more DeFi, GameFi, and payment dApps are launched on TON, the demand for native tokens like NOT will naturally surge. Notably, the technical advantages of the TON network should be highlighted: theoretical TPS (transactions per second) exceeding one million, and the cost of a single transaction is only about $0.04; these characteristics provide an ideal infrastructure for high-frequency gaming interactions. As one of the first tokens to achieve mass adoption within the TON ecosystem, Notcoin is in a favorable position to lead the growth of this blockchain.
Adjustments to the token economic policy have also played an important role in shaping NOT's price trends. To reduce selling pressure, the Notcoin team has introduced staking and token burn plans. These mechanisms create a deflationary effect, encouraging long-term holding rather than short-term trading. Specifically, staking allows users to lock up tokens for earnings, while burning permanently reduces NOT's circulating supply; together, they help form a healthier price floor around $0.0018. In the long term, this deflationary design may gradually change the supply-demand balance of NOT, providing upward support for the price.
## Market Sentiment and Community Power: The Invisible Value Pillars of NOT
In the cryptocurrency space, market sentiment often has a more direct impact on short-term price movements than fundamentals, and Notcoin has a unique advantage in this regard. Data measured through Telegram activities and trend dashboards show that Notcoin maintains strong community attention—this popularity even exceeds the traditional cryptocurrency audience. Its mobile-first distribution strategy, gamification mechanisms, and low barriers to entry make NOT particularly user-friendly for casual users, creating a unique niche supported not only by technology but also by cultural resonance.
There is a clear divergence in the cryptocurrency community regarding the long-term value of Notcoin, and this opinion fragmentation is part of its allure. Skeptics view NOT as another flash-in-the-pan meme coin, with its value entirely reliant on market speculation; while supporters believe Notcoin represents a groundbreaking tokenized social dissemination experiment, pioneering a new model for large-scale adoption of cryptocurrencies. Notably, even after a significant price drop from its peak in 2025, NOT still maintains astonishing community activity. For example, on the project's first anniversary, users expressed their gratitude on social platforms, with many noting that Notcoin was their entry point to receive their first Web3 rewards—a sentiment connection that is far from what ordinary cryptocurrencies can compare to.
From quantitative indicators, the community strength of NOT is impressive. According to data from May 2025, Notcoin has over 35 million users on Telegram and 6 million daily active players. On the X (formerly Twitter) platform, 40.21% of discussions about NOT are bullish, while bearish sentiment accounts for only 25.43%. This positive sentiment tilt is quite rare in the cryptocurrency space, where typically only top assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum can maintain such high levels of community enthusiasm. The Notcoin team also understands community operations well, regularly launching innovative initiatives such as Earn Launchpool, Sticker Shop, and Not Games to continuously provide users with blockchain-based rewards and collectibles, maintaining engagement.
The most direct manifestation of community power is the astonishing scale of Notcoin's airdrop. Over the past year, the project has distributed a total of $220 million worth of NOT rewards, most of which were distributed through mainstream exchanges such as Binance ($86.3 million), OKX ($35.9 million), and Bybit ($2.8 million). Smaller "airdrop" events brought $2.41 million in rewards to 114,000 users, averaging about $210 per person, while early participants received $1.56 million in rewards through special events. This large-scale wealth distribution not only strengthened community loyalty but also created a large number of holding addresses for NOT, diversifying the token holding structure and reducing the risk of manipulation by a few whales.
The explosive growth in the number of TON wallets further verifies Notcoin's community influence from another perspective. The number of Jetton wallets grew from 209,784 on January 1, 2024, to 8,437,205 on May 16, 2025, an increase of over 3900%. This growth is largely attributed to the influx of new users brought by successful projects like Notcoin, creating a virtuous cycle: more users attract more developers to join the TON ecosystem, and richer applications, in turn, enhance NOT's utility value.
## Technical Analysis and Price Prediction: A Professional Perspective on NOT's Trend
Conducting a professional technical analysis of Notcoin helps investors make more rational decisions in an emotional market. As of August 2025, NOT's price trend exhibits several noteworthy technical characteristics, which may signal the direction of market development in the coming months.
From the daily chart observation, the NOT/USDT trading pair shows that since the beginning of 2025, the price has been in a downward channel, but the volatility range is gradually narrowing, indicating a potential trend change. Notably, since mid-May 2025, NOT has increased by over 85%, climbing from $0.0016 to a local high of $0.0031-$0.0035. This rebound found support at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently around $0.002748, forming a short-term dynamic support level.
In terms of key indicators, the short-term technicals show mild bullish signals. The 20-day moving average currently provides support below the price, while the 200-day moving average and the moving average (around $0.0045) constitute resistance above. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading in May 2025 shows the market in a neutral zone (around 48.50), and if accompanied by increasing trading volume, there is further upward potential. The MACD indicator within the 4-hour framework shows that the blue line (MACD) is above the orange line (signal line), and the histogram is green, indicating that positive momentum is accumulating.
A potential descending wedge pattern that may be forming is particularly worthy of caution. This pattern typically appears at the end of a downtrend, characterized by reduced volatility and a narrowing price range, often signaling an upward breakout. The upper boundary of NOT's descending wedge is around $0.0033, and a valid breakout above this level could trigger a more substantial upward movement. However, analysts also warn that the current rally still lacks the volume needed for a confirming breakout, and this pattern should be viewed with caution.
Regarding key price levels, traders should closely monitor several important levels. Immediate resistance is located between $0.0033-$0.0035, and the next target after breaking through is at $0.0045. On the support side, $0.0026 is the first important defensive line, while stronger historical support is near $0.0016. From the order book depth analysis, $0.003 is an important psychological barrier where a large number of limit sell orders are concentrated; once breached, it could trigger a chain reaction of short covering.
Professional institutions show significant divergence in their price predictions for NOT, reflecting the project's high-risk, high-reward nature. For the remainder of 2025, conservative models like WalletInvestor predict an average price of $0.0065 for NOT, with a volatility range of $0.0045-$0.0082. Meanwhile, optimistic models like DigitalCoinPrice suggest prices could break through $0.0557, especially if the number of TON ecosystem users exceeds 200 million, representing a potential increase of over 300%. The longer-term predictions for 2030 show even greater divergence: CoinCodex believes NOT could rise to $0.0894, assuming successful integration of GameFi and SocialFi to form scale effects; while risk scenario forecasts warn that if the meme coin craze fades or the growth of the TON ecosystem slows, NOT could remain below $0.01 for an extended period.
## Bullish and Bearish Scenarios: Two Paths for NOT's Future
Notcoin's future development may take drastically different paths, and investors need to consider both optimistic and cautious perspectives to make a balanced risk assessment. Based on current market data and project fundamentals, we can outline two scenarios for NOT in 2025 and beyond.
The core assumption of the bullish scenario is that Notcoin can successfully transcend its viral origins and find lasting utility within the TON and Telegram ecosystems. Specifically, the following developments may drive NOT into an upward channel:
First, the expansion of use cases within Telegram. Currently, NOT is mainly used for gaming rewards, but if it can be integrated into reward systems, NFT trading, or group governance, it will significantly enhance its inherent value. Considering Telegram's massive base of 700 million monthly active users, even a small percentage of adoption could create huge demand. Secondly, deep integration with TON DeFi protocols. If NOT can become a trading pair or collateral asset on major DeFi platforms on the TON chain, it will receive more stable liquidity support. Thirdly, enhancements to the staking mechanism and strengthening of token deflationary strategies. More attractive staking yields and more aggressive token burns could significantly reduce market sell pressure, supporting a long-term price increase.
In a bullish market environment, if the aforementioned factors work in synergy, analysts predict that the NOT price may rebound to the range of $0.0035-$0.0050, and even challenge the historical high of $0.029. More optimistic long-term forecasts suggest that as the TON ecosystem expands and Web3 gaming becomes mainstream, NOT may reach $0.15-$0.16 by 2030. In this scenario, NOT will transform into a true utility token, rather than just a speculative tool.
In contrast, the bearish risks cannot be ignored, primarily including the following key factors:
The most direct risk is user fatigue and declining engagement. The Tap-to-Earn model itself is already facing challenges, and Notcoin's co-founder has even publicly stated that this model is "basically dead." If the project fails to timely transition to a more entertaining and social format, it may struggle to maintain existing user activity. Secondly, continued selling pressure from early adopters could pose a risk. Since most NOT is obtained for free through gameplay, holders' cost basis is very low, and any price rebound could trigger a new round of profit-taking. Thirdly, a lag in the development of utility could pose a risk. If the Notcoin team cannot expand use cases as planned or the overall development of the TON ecosystem does not meet expectations, NOT may struggle to shed the "airdrop token" label.
In the bearish scenario, the NOT price may test the key support level at $0.0016, and if it breaks below, it may further probe down to $0.0012. A more pessimistic situation would be if the overall cryptocurrency market enters a bear market, where NOT, as a high-risk asset, could be hit hardest, and a long-term price below $0.001 is not out of the question. In this case, NOT would revert to the pure meme coin attributes, with its value relying entirely on market sentiment rather than fundamentals.
For investors, the key to understanding these scenarios lies in recognizing the dynamic changes in the value drivers of NOT. In 2024, NOT's price was primarily driven by speculative fervor, while by 2025, fundamental factors such as the development of the TON ecosystem and the degree of Telegram integration began to play a more significant role. Whether NOT can achieve a value reassessment in the future largely depends on whether the project can successfully transition from a simple game to a complex ecosystem.
