Current situation: SOL is currently stuck around 169, in a dilemma—170 above is a major resistance, while 168.5 below is a support level. The Bollinger Bands have contracted to the extreme, indicating the market is building up momentum; a direction is likely to be chosen tonight!
Key points
Battle of the bulls and bears: Struggle for the middle band of Bollinger Bands
The bulls are firmly defending 168.5, and it hasn't dropped below this level in the past 6 hours, indicating that someone is supporting the price.
But the trading volume is insufficient; just guarding without attacking won't work. A breakout above 170 is needed to confirm the upward trend.
Market data: What are the main players doing?
Bull stronghold (168.8-169.2): There are large buy orders piled up here, like a wall, preventing the price from dropping.
Bear defense line (170.0): There are many sell orders above; to break through here, big funds must enter.
Two major events tonight
20:30 US unemployment claims data - If the data is poor, the market may panic, and SOL could be hit.
Midnight tariff policy implementation - Funds may seek safety, SOL may be affected.
Three possible trends
Surge scenario (60% probability)
Condition: Stabilize above 169.3 + Increase in trading volume
Trend: Break above 170 - Bears forced to cover - Price surges to 171.5-172
Operation: Buy after breaking 170, target 172
Fluctuation scenario (30% probability)
Condition: Hovering between 169-170
Trend: Wait for tomorrow's Asian capital to enter before choosing a direction
Operation: Short-term high selling and low buying, don’t be greedy
Plunge scenario (10% probability)
Condition: Drop below 168.5 + MACD death cross
Trend: Drop to 166.8 - In extreme cases, it could go to 156 (unless there’s a market crash)
Operation: Stop-loss if it drops below 168.5, and go short
Trading advice
Short-term players: Wait for a breakout above 170 to chase, or short if it drops below 168.5.
Spot traders: You can buy in batches near 168, but don't go all in; save some for unexpected events.
Contract players: Manage your stop-loss! Tonight's volatility could be significant, don’t hold onto losing positions!
Summary
SOL is currently like a compressed spring, ready to explode at any moment!
Bullish signal: Stabilize above 169.3 + Breakout above 170 with volume
Bearish signal: Drop below 168.5 + Increase in trading volume
Keep a close eye on the data at 20:30 tonight, the market might take off instantly!
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