'When technicals, news, and funding complete a triple resonance on the 1-hour candlestick chart, ETH's surge is a meticulously planned capital carnival!'
Today's violent rise of ETH from 3590 to 3697 looks like a 'sudden surge', but it is actually a concentrated explosion after multiple forces are battling behind the scenes. Let's break it down:
Act One: Technicals 'ignite', shorts are pressed to the ground
Before the surge, ETH was like a 'punching bag' pressed against the lower Bollinger Band (3566), after three consecutive bullish candles broke through the middle band, the shorts began to panic—Bollinger Bands widened from ±1.2% to ±2.5%, which is like a spring rebounding after being compressed to the limit, directly igniting short covering. Even more intense was the trading volume: in the half hour from 21:30 to 22:00, the trading volume soared from an average of 4000 ETH to 12,000 ETH (a threefold increase), MACD golden crossed below the zero axis, and RSI jumped from the extreme oversold zone of 29.5 to 58.7. Algorithmic trading saw this signal and immediately switched to 'buy buy buy' mode.
Personal opinion: The underlying logic of the technical surge is 'self-fulfilling expectations'—when enough indicators point to 'it's time to rise', the market will push the price up with real money. For example, when BTC broke 35000 in October 2023, it was also a triple resonance of Bollinger Bands + MACD + RSI, subsequently directly soaring to 42000.
Act Two: The news is 'sharp', with three major catalysts bombarding one after another
US stock market opens with momentum: at 21:30, the Nasdaq opens high, tech stocks rebound, and Coinbase (COIN.O), which is strongly correlated with ETH, rises 2.3% simultaneously. The crypto market, as a representative of 'high risk, high return', is directly ignited by expectations of improved macro liquidity—just like BTC surged 50% in one week when the Federal Reserve loosened in March 2020.
Trump stirs things up: at 22:01, Trump announces tariffs on India, crude oil (WTI) breaks through $83, and energy inflation expectations soar. Historical data shows that the correlation between ETH and crude oil reached as high as 0.67 during energy crises (for example, during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022), and the market naturally treats ETH as an 'anti-inflation asset' and buys it frantically.
EIA inventory 'black swan' surprises: at 22:30, crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 3.029 million barrels, the dollar index sharply fell by 0.4%, and funds immediately surged into the crypto market to hedge against fiat currency devaluation. ETH, as the most liquid 'leading altcoin', became the first choice for funds—just like ETH surged 40% in a single week when the dollar weakened in May 2021.
Act Three: On-chain data 'proves' that whales and shorts are working together to 'lift the platform'
Whales secretly accumulate positions: at 21:42, an address starting with 0x7f3 withdrew 12,000 ETH (about $44 million) from Binance, which is not an operation that small retail investors can play; it is clearly an institution accumulating at low levels.
Shorts forced to close positions: perpetual contract funding rate flipped from -0.018% to +0.0062%, with short closing volume reaching $120 million—just like in August 2023, when ETH broke through $2000, short closing volume exceeded $800 million, directly pushing the price up by 15%.
Options market 'bets on rise': 1-week implied volatility jumped by 15%, and the trading volume of call options with a strike price of 3700 surged, indicating that professional players have started betting on 'breaking through 3700'.
Key resistance levels: 3690 is the 'graveyard for shorts', 3697 is the 'Fibonacci checkpoint'
3690 is the 'stop-loss concentration camp' for short positions on August futures contracts. After breaking through, algorithmic trading automatically follows the trend to buy in, but 3697 just happens to be the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, so encountering resistance here is quite normal—
How to play in the future? Keep an eye on these two points!
In the short term, 3700 is the 'line of life and death': if it can hold, and retest 3660 (previous high turned support) without breaking, it is very likely to challenge 3750; but if it falls below 3660, it may retest 3600. Additionally, changes in the Federal Reserve's personnel are a potential risk—if the new board member takes a hawkish stance, it may trigger expectations of liquidity tightening, causing the crypto market to fall as a precaution.
Do you think this wave of ETH is a 'technical rebound' or the 'beginning of a new bullish wave'? Let's discuss in the comments. If likes exceed 100, next issue will break down 'how to hedge against such surges and falls with options'!
(I am Shen Ce, the analyst in the crypto space who dares to speak the truth. Follow me to see through the underlying logic of capital games!)#ETH巨鲸增持
