“TREE dropped to 0.40, is it a bottom fishing opportunity or a bottomless pit? Understand the answer in three seconds with VPVR!”
Market in one sentence
For 31 consecutive days, a net outflow of 687 million contracts has pushed the price from 1.5 to 0.4, leaving behind a transaction volume 'keel' — the POC at 0.497 is like a magnet waiting for the price to return home, in the short term, it will either bounce back to 0.45 or violently rebound after stepping on 0.38.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchoring area: POC 0.4978, upper HVN 0.4849-0.5107 (upper edge of 70% transaction volume coverage area), lower HVN 0.4462-0.4591.
2. Low transaction volume void: 0.395-0.429 (between the lower band of the Bollinger Band and the lower edge of the 70% range), no significant HVN, if the price breaks below 0.395, it will quickly slide to 0.38.
3. Momentum verification: Up Volume above POC ≈ 70%, Down Volume below only 30%, buyers still dominate; however, the recent 8h contract holding is -6.54%, short-term selling pressure has not yet been relieved.
Market cycle
Mid-bear market, weekly downtrend channel not broken; short-term enters an oversold rebound window, but the larger trend is still downwards.
Trading strategy
• Aggressive: Place a direct 1% position order at the current price of 0.4023, stop loss at 0.388 (below HVN + 0.5×ATR ≈ 0.013), target 0.446 (recent HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.4:1.
• Moderate: Wait for a pullback to 0.395-0.398 LVN and see a bullish candle + Up Volume > 60% before re-entering, same stop loss, target 0.484 (lower edge of POC), risk-reward ratio ≈ 6.5:1.
• Conservative: Break through the upper band of the Bollinger Band at 0.434 and hold for 15 minutes, re-enter if it pulls back without breaking 0.429, stop loss at 0.420, target 0.497, risk-reward ratio ≈ 4.8:1.
Risk warning: If the daily close drops below 0.388, the strategy is invalid, reverse to short to 0.35.
LP market-making advice
It is recommended to place orders in the 0.395-0.446 range for market-making:
• Buy wall: 0.395-0.402, to absorb panic selling;
• Sell wall: 0.440-0.446, to absorb short-term rebounds;
Range width 5.5%, transaction volume proportion > 60%, funding rate close to 0, risk is controllable.
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