The longer the consolidation, the more severe the breakout—ETH is building momentum, but the choice of direction may happen today!

Market situation: BTC is leading the rhythm, will ETH follow?

Today, ETH's trend is still being led by BTC, which is fluctuating around 114,000 USDT, while ETH is stuck around 164 USDT. From the 1-hour candlestick chart, ETH's volatility is clearly higher than BTC's, indicating that the market sentiment towards ETH is more sensitive—rising sharply when bullish and falling hard when bearish.

Latest news:

  • U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released tonight: The market expects weak employment data, which may be beneficial for risk assets (including ETH); however, if the data is stronger than expected, expectations for Fed rate hikes may rise, putting short-term pressure on ETH.

  • ETH Foundation wallet unusual activity: Detected 2000 ETH transferred to exchanges, although the amount is not large, combined with the recent increase in ETH2.0 staking unlocks, short-term selling pressure may increase.

  • Layer2 sector capital inflow: Growth in on-chain TVL of Arbitrum and Optimism indicates that capital is still being allocated to the ETH ecosystem, providing support for mid to long-term prices.

2. Technical analysis: Key levels and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears

  • Support levels: 162 USDT (4-hour MA30) + 160 USDT (psychological barrier)

  • Resistance levels: 165 USDT (previous high resistance) + 168 USDT (July holding area)

Personal opinion:
ETH is currently in a 'pressure above, support below' trading range, but there are several details worth noting:

  1. Funding rates are relatively high (0.0085%), indicating that retail bullish sentiment is overheated, which can easily lead to a 'long squeeze' market.

  2. Large funds are retreating (fund data -51.5), but retail investors are still pushing, a typical 'institutions cutting leeks' scenario.

  3. MACD is about to create a death cross: If the fast line drops below the zero axis within an hour, there may be a sharp decline in the short term.

Case reference:
Last month, ETH also consolidated around 165 USDT for 3 days before suddenly dropping to 158 USDT with a large bearish candle, resulting in a liquidation of 20 million USD in long positions. History may not repeat itself exactly, but it rhymes—if tonight's non-farm data is negative, a similar scenario may unfold.

3. Operation suggestion: Focus on stability, wait for clear direction

  • Short-term (intraday trading):

    • If ETH breaks above 165 USDT and holds, you can enter a small long position targeting 168 USDT.

    • If it drops below 162 USDT, take the opposite position and short, targeting 160 USDT.

    • Remember to set a stop-loss! (Suggestion: 1-2% floating stop-loss)

  • Medium to long-term (holding position weekly):

    • Below 160 USDT can be gradually accumulated, with ETH2.0 upgrades and ETF expectations still in play, there is a good chance of seeing 200 USDT in the second half of the year.

4. Risk warning

  • Tonight's non-farm data: Volatility will spike, leverage players should be cautious of price spikes!

  • ETH Foundation movements: If it continues to transfer coins to exchanges, it may trigger FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).

    "Will you choose to sell high and buy low during the consolidation, or wait for a big market move to make a swift move?"

    Follow Qingyao to catch the opportunity for ETH's trend change!#美股代币化