$SOL Short-term Trend (August 4-8)

Key Points: The first week of August may see a market trend of 'Wednesday Breakthrough, Friday Climax', but caution is needed regarding insufficient trading volume (e.g., if the transaction does not reach 1.8 trillion) or policy risks. If the 163.70 point is the recent low, watch for the potential formation of a 'turning point', with trading volume being key.

1. Wednesday (August 7)

Key Resistance Breakthrough: Condition: If the SOL price breaks through 180 (current $SOL 163.76) and trading volume exceeds 1.8 trillion (on-chain trading volume must significantly increase) and confirms short-term strength.

• Risk: If trading volume is insufficient or there are negative policy signals, the regulatory direction of the $SOL ecosystem is unclear, which may lead to a false breakthrough, with a pullback to the 150-155 support area.

• Friday (August 9) Climax Realization:

• Optimistic Scenario: If it breaks 180 and continues to see increased volume, it may push toward 200-210.

• Pessimistic Scenario: If Friday's volume shrinks (e.g., on-chain daily trading volume <1.5 trillion), watch for 'good news being fully priced in' or a pullback, with support levels moving down to 140-145.

• Highest Price:

• Short-term Ceiling: 210 USD (requires favorable policies from Trump or expectations of SOL spot ETF progress)

• Realistic Bullish Range: 180-195 (current market sentiment and profit-taking pressure)

• Lowest Price: Strong Support at 150 (50-day moving average + psychological level; if macro risks explode, a temporary dip may occur)

• Extreme Situation: 130 USD (if the Federal Reserve makes hawkish statements or SOLana network issues resurface)

• Positive Factors:

• Policy Arbitrage: Support from the Trump administration for the crypto industry (e.g., evaluating SOL as part of strategic reserves) may drive institutional capital inflows.

• Liquidity Crisis: If US Treasury yields exceed 4.5%, the overall capital in cryptocurrencies will be under pressure.

Operating Suggestions: Breakthrough Strategy

• Follow up when the volume breaks 180 on Wednesday, with a stop-loss set below 175.

• Defensive Strategy:

• If volume does not meet expectations (e.g., <1.5 trillion), reduce positions to below 50% and wait for confirmation on Friday.

• Long-term Allocation:

• Focus on gradually building positions in the 140-150 range; the fundamentals of the SOL ecosystem still support mid- to long-term value.

Note: The volatility of cryptocurrencies requires adjusting strategies in line with real-time news. Current predictions are based on historical data and known events; actual trends may be affected by unforeseen factors.

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