On August 5, the cryptocurrency market is on high alert—former US President Trump will appear on CNBC's flagship program (Squawk Box) at 8:00 PM Beijing time. This interview covering the economy, Fed policies, and tariffs is seen as a potential 'key variable' that could ignite the market. Whether it's Bitcoin or mainstream cryptocurrencies, they may face severe fluctuations in response to his remarks, and investors have entered a 'prepared mode'.
1. Trump's 'Policy Legacy': Once caused the crypto market to soar by 40%, but also led to a market value evaporation of over 40%.
Looking back at his administration, the impact of policies on cryptocurrencies can be described as a 'double-edged sword':
Loose Period (Tax Cuts in 2017): Disposable income for businesses and individuals surged, net inflow of funds into the crypto market skyrocketed by 37% year-on-year, Bitcoin soared from the thousand-dollar range to $20,000, and blockchain startups emerged in droves—loose policies directly fed the crypto market.
Friction Period (Trade War in 2018-2019): The China-US tariff friction escalated, global economic expectations cooled, panic spread in the market, the total market value of cryptocurrencies evaporated by 40% in three months, funds fled high-risk assets in a frenzy, turning to gold and the US dollar—trade protectionism became the 'fever reducer' for the crypto market.
If this interview reiterates tax cuts or loosening regulations, it may awaken the market's memory of 'funds easing'; if it amplifies trade friction, cryptocurrencies may once again become 'the vanguard of selling'. 2. The 'Pressure Exerted' by Fed Policies: His words have previously caused expectations for rate cuts to soar, and Trump's 'public criticism' of the Fed has always been a 'trigger for market sentiment':
Historical data shows that whenever he criticizes the Fed for 'raising rates too quickly', the probability of rate cut expectations in the CME FedWatch Tool jumps sharply—and cryptocurrencies are extremely sensitive to 'liquidity easing': during the Fed's easing period in 2020, Bitcoin surged from $7,000 to $30,000, precisely due to expectations of easing.
If he pressures again tonight that 'the Fed should cut rates', the market may bet on 'liquidity easing', and cryptocurrencies may rise due to influx of funds; conversely, if his remarks suggest 'accepting high interest rates', tightening expectations may rise, and the crypto market could face outflow pressure. 3. The 'Domino Effect' of Tariff Policies: Mining companies once saw their costs surge by 30%, and the price of cryptocurrencies suffered collateral damage from Trump's tariff policies more directly.
Previously, the US imposed tariffs on imported crypto mining machines, leading to a surge in operational costs for some mining companies by 20%-30%, forcing layoffs, relocations, and even shutdowns— the industry's foundation was damaged, naturally putting pressure on cryptocurrency prices.
If a signal of 'new tariffs' is released this time, it will not only hit the crypto hardware industry chain, but also raise concerns about global economic growth, decreasing investors' risk appetite, with high-risk assets like Bitcoin being the first to be sold off. In the face of volatility, what should investors do?
Don't bet on the direction, first control the position: Reduce leverage contracts, keep spot positions within 50%, and leave enough cash to respond to sudden fluctuations.
Watch for two signals:
If 'tax cuts and regulatory easing' are mentioned, watch if Bitcoin can hold key support levels (like $115,000); if it holds, you can lightly test long positions;
If 'trade war and interest rate hikes' are mentioned, be cautious of chain stop-loss orders after breaking support; if it breaks, decisively reduce positions.
Use tools for hedging: Track real-time market conditions through TradingView, set automatic stop-loss (for example, exit automatically if it falls 10% below recent lows), to avoid emotional trading.
Trump's remarks have never been 'the market's divine decree', but they are enough to stir up short-term waves. For investors, rather than guessing 'up or down', it is better to first build a solid defense— the long-term logic of cryptocurrencies will not change due to a single interview, but short-term fluctuations may cost the unprepared. At 8 PM tonight, the market's 'stress test' is about to begin; stabilizing positions is more important than guessing the direction.
Intraday focus: LTC GAS ILV
