"In the crypto market, trends are the knife, indicators are the shield, and the real winners are those who can see the blade's shine while understanding how to use the shield to protect themselves."

ETH 1-hour chart: should we 'cut losses' or 'buy the dip' now? Golden quote at the beginning:

"In the crypto market, trends are the knife, indicators are the shield, and the real winners are those who can see the blade's shine while understanding how to use the shield to protect themselves."

ETH 1-hour chart: should we 'cut losses' or 'buy the dip' now?

1. Current market: Bulls are 'catching their breath', bears are 'sharpening their knives'.

ETH is currently at $3611, the 1-hour chart has directly dropped below the BOLL middle line, like a runaway roller coaster, about to crash into the lower line (around 3350). The MACD has a death cross and the histogram is crazily expanding below the zero line, and the RSI has already fallen below 50 (close to 30 indicates oversold, the bulls are being pressed down).

Key signals:

The funding rate has shrunk from a positive premium to 0.0034%, indicating that while the bulls are still present, their enthusiasm has cooled significantly.

Basis -0.05%, futures are at a discount (spot is more expensive than futures), indicating market expectations for a short-term decline.

Large transactions: A large sell order of 6.23 million USDT, the main funds are 'voting with their feet', and the bulls are panicking.

Personal opinion:

This drop is not a 'black swan', but a dual blow of technical and emotional factors. For example, the downtrend line from 3950-3850 is like a wall pressing ETH down hard; combined with the collective plunge of mainstream coins like DOGE and BNB, market sentiment has directly dropped from 'frenzy' into an 'ice cellar'.

Case reference:

In November last year, ETH also plunged 12% due to 'technical breakdown + funding rate contraction', but later rebounded 20% after the RSI was oversold and a long lower shadow appeared. Will it repeat this time? Let's look down.

2. What to do with the long position at 3670? Three plans, one will suit you.

Plan 1: Short-term risk control - don't let a 'small loss' turn into a 'big hole'.

First support level at 3550 (previous low platform): If it rebounds to this level, reduce your position by 30% first to lower risk;

Mandatory stop loss at 3350 (BOLL lower line + whole number level): If it effectively breaks below, stop loss immediately, don't hesitate!

Plan 2: Actively break even - use a 'pyramid' strategy to buy the dip, but you need to watch the conditions.

Buying back is not 'blind buying', it must meet 3 conditions (like clearing a game level):

RSI < 30 (oversold signal);

Trading volume suddenly increased by 2 times (capital suddenly poured in);

A long lower shadow appears (the bulls start to counterattack).

If conditions are met, you can gradually buy back at 3550 and 3450 to lower your cost.

Plan 3: Hedging operation - use options to 'buy insurance'.

Buy put options for ETH at a strike price of 3600 for the week. If ETH continues to fall, the money made from the options can hedge against the losses in the spot market, effectively putting a 'safety lock' on the long position.

Personal opinion:

Buying back now is like 'catching a falling knife', you need to wait for the market to give a clear signal (like RSI being oversold + capital intervention). If you're afraid of missing the rebound, you can try with a 'small position + strict stop-loss', but don't go all in!

3. Advanced suggestions: These 'hidden signals' may determine life and death.

ETH/BTC exchange rate: currently around 0.056, if ETH is stronger than BTC (exchange rate rises), it may rebound first;

Options expiration date: On August 6, 320 million ETH options will expire, volatility may intensify (similar to 'casino liquidation day', long and short will gamble crazily);

Miner Position Index (MPI): currently at 2.1, indicating miners are reluctant to sell (unwilling to sell coins at low prices), which is positive in the long run.

Historical data reference:

In the past six months, after ETH has fallen 3%-5%, there is a 68% probability of rebounding within 8.2 hours; after a fall of 5%-8%, there is a 52% probability of rebounding in 16.5 hours. So now it might be 'the darkness before dawn', but we have to endure it.

Do you choose to 'wait for a rebound' or 'cut losses'?

Now ETH is like standing at a crossroads:

If after the funding rate settlement at 14:00, the 4-hour chart shows a 'morning star' (bullish reversal signal), a rebound may occur;

If it breaks below 3350, the implied volatility (currently 82%) will continue to soar, and the market may enter 'panic mode'.

Your choice:

Set price alerts: breaking above 3680 (confirmed by a 30-minute close) → The downward trend eases.

If it breaks below 3350 → immediately stop loss, don't be the 'bag holder'.

Final note:

"In the crypto market, patience is more important than courage, and risk control is more crucial than making money. Are you ready?"

(Follow me, the next issue will reveal 'how to make money with options during a crash'!)#以太坊ETF连续12周净流入