The White House's power tentacles have reached the Federal Reserve, and a central bank leadership adjustment quietly led by Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent is underway—Bitcoin may become the biggest beneficiary of this change.
On August 3rd, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett unexpectedly revealed key information: Trump is 'accelerating the search' for the next Federal Reserve chair in conjunction with Treasury Secretary Bessent. This is far from a simple personnel change; it resembles a deep game around the dominance of monetary policy.
Current Chair Powell's term ends in May 2026, but Bessent has made it clear: the list of successors will be announced by the end of the year. More importantly, Trump has already begun laying the groundwork—just last week, he suddenly fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Director McEntyre, simply because the latter released 'unsatisfactory' employment data. Former director William Beach criticized this move as 'baseless and damaging to data credibility', but clearly, Trump is paving the way to clear obstacles for interest rate policy.
Doves rise, hawks retreat
The competition for the Federal Reserve chair has entered a critical stage, with three core figures emerging:
Kevin Hassett, the current White House economic advisor, who was once a defender of the 'independence of the Federal Reserve', has now become an advocate for aggressive rate cuts, publicly criticizing Powell for 'poor performance' and calling for an immediate cut of 300 basis points, directly igniting market expectations for liquidity easing.
Scott Bessent, the current Treasury Secretary and a close friend of Trump, is leading the candidate selection, and although there are reports that he is 'more satisfied with his current position', his hedge fund background raises speculation that future policies may lean more towards the market.
Christopher Waller, a current Federal Reserve governor, cast a rare double dissenting vote with Powell at the July meeting, advocating for an immediate 25 basis point rate cut, becoming a pioneer in the internal push for Powell's ousting.
This personnel change has long been signaled. After the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates on July 31, Trump was furious on social media, denouncing Powell as a 'stubborn fool', and even made the astonishing demand: 'Decision-making power should be taken over by the Board!' The independence barrier of the Federal Reserve is facing a severe shock.
Easing expectations heat up, the crypto market stirs
Historical data shows that changes in leadership at the Federal Reserve often trigger significant volatility in the crypto market.
On April 17th of this year, when rumors surfaced that Trump was considering Tiffany Fang to replace Powell, Bitcoin rose 2.48% within 15 minutes, and Ethereum rose 2.32% simultaneously.
Exchange data speaks volumes: Binance's trading volume surged by 45% instantly, while Coinbase grew by 38%, demonstrating capital's sensitivity and desire for policy shifts.
If Hasset and other doves come to power this time, it may trigger a stronger release of liquidity:
Regarding rate cut expectations, the current federal funds rate is in the 4.25%-4.50% range; if Hassett's claim of a 300 basis point cut is true, the U.S. may return to a zero interest rate era.
In terms of capital flows, during the easing cycle, tens of trillions of dollars may flow out of the bond market and into high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Opportunities brought by time differences: Bessent mentioned 'announcing candidates by the end of the year', and speculative funds have begun to position early, with Ethereum chain gas usage increasing by 5% within a week as evidence.
Risks are hidden; caution is needed for variables
However, speculative capital also needs to be wary of three major potential risks:
Inflation backlash: The U.S. June CPI has risen to 2.7%. If Trump's tariff policy further drives up prices, the dovish easing policy may be forced to halt urgently.
Data credibility crisis: Trump forcibly replaced the head of employment statistics, and future economic data may become a 'White House custom version', leading to potential volatility in the market.
Technical warning: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin rose to 71 in the overbought range after personnel rumors, and caution is needed for potential liquidation pullbacks after good news is realized.
Decentralized exchanges are emerging in this uncertainty. Platforms like XBIT leverage anti-censorship designs, allowing users to trade without identity verification and fully control their assets, leading to a significant increase in trading volumes. As traditional exchanges become regulatory focuses, the on-chain advantages of decentralized exchanges are becoming a new safe haven for capital.
The outcome of this power struggle within the Federal Reserve is becoming clearer: whether Hassett or Waller comes to power, rate cuts before the end of 2025 have almost become a foregone conclusion.
The candidate list led by hedge fund veteran Bessent is essentially a 'liquidity release statement'—when the zero interest rate era returns, Bitcoin may no longer be an investment option but an inevitable choice for capital seeking refuge.
At this moment, all candlesticks seem to imply: when the White House breaks the independence of the Federal Reserve, it may mark the beginning of a highlight moment for cryptocurrencies.#特朗普计划宣布新美联储理事 $BTC
