Based on the latest market dynamics and technical analysis as of August 2, 2025, Bitcoin's trend in the coming week (from August 3 to August 9) may show a fluctuating bearish trend, but caution should be taken for oversold rebound opportunities. Below is a detailed analysis and forecast based on data from multiple platforms:
📉 One, Short-term bearish factors and market status
Macroeconomic pressure
Inflation data exceeds expectations: US July PCE inflation data reaches 2.6%, CPI at 2.7%, both above expectations, leading to a cooling of Fed rate cut expectations, with rates remaining high (4.25%-4.5%).
Non-farm data revision: May and June non-farm employment data has been significantly revised down from 291,000 to 31,000, triggering market panic and increasing risk-averse sentiment.
Policy uncertainty: Trump publicly demands the resignation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, exacerbating policy differences and undermining confidence in risk assets.
Technical breakdown downward
Key support lost: Bitcoin's daily level drops below $115,000 (200EMA) and the $114,855 Fibonacci level, shifting short-term trend to bearish. If $112,850 (the divide between long and short) is further lost, it may accelerate the decline to the psychological level of $110,000.
Short momentum strengthens: MACD death cross and green bars expand, the middle Bollinger Band is lost, and a series of bearish candles form a 'death cross' (EMA7 crossing below EMA30) on the 4-hour chart.
Capital and sentiment
Leverage longs are being wiped out: $950 million in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 90%. The market fear index has dropped to 65.
Institutional capital outflow: Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $114 million in one day, indicating a clear sign of short-term institutional withdrawal.
📍 Two, Key support and resistance levels for the coming week
Key price level type importance current status $116,000 resistance ★★★★ strong resistance area, short positions concentrated at $114,855 resistance ★★★ short-term rebound target $113,000 support ★★★ intraday long-short battle point $112,850 support ★★★★ divide between long and short, if lost will accelerate decline $110,000 support ★★★★ psychological barrier and technical support
Data source:
⚠️ Three, Potential rebound catalysts
Oversold recovery demand:
RSI has dropped below 30 (oversold area), 30-minute level RSI is as low as 22, indicating potential for a technical rebound.
If $112,850 stabilizes, it may trigger short-term long positions with a target of $114,000.
Long-term capital layout:
MicroStrategy increases holdings again: Total holdings reach 555,450 BTC, long-term confidence remains unshaken.
Public companies entering: For example, carbon management company DevvStream purchases BTC and SOL, indicating institutional willingness to accumulate on dips.
Policy positive expectations:
The Trump administration is pushing for cryptocurrency-friendly policies, and the SEC is reviewing Trump Media's Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF application (results due in September).
State-level policy breakthroughs (e.g., New Hampshire allowing state treasury to invest in Bitcoin) pave the way for institutional entry.
💡 Four, Operational strategy suggestions
Short position strategy:
Entry range: Short after a rebound to $115,000–$115,600, stop-loss at $116,500, target $113,000→$111,500.
Additional position conditions: If the price rebounds to around $116,000 and volume is insufficient, additional short positions can be added.
Long position strategy:
Aggressive long position: Enter lightly (≤20% total position) after stabilizing at $112,850, stop-loss at $112,000, target $114,000.
Stable layout: Gradually build positions near $110,000, betting on an oversold rebound.
Risk control:
Single trade position ≤5%, total position ≤20%.
Set stop-loss range at 5%-8%, laddered take profit (50%+30%) to lock in profits.
🔮 Five, Forecast for the Coming Week
High probability scenario (60%): Fluctuating downward to the $110,000-$112,850 range, suppressed by macro headwinds and technical breakdown, with weak rebounds.
Next high probability (30%): Strong support at $112,850 is effective, oversold rebound to the $114,000-$115,000 range.
Low probability event (10%): Unexpected improvement in PCE data or sudden positive policies could push prices back above $116,000.
⚠️ Key time nodes:
August 2, 20:30: US PCE price data released, if it exceeds expectations, it will accelerate the decline.
After August 5: Pay attention to the movements of institutions like MicroStrategy and comments from the Trump family on cryptocurrency (e.g., Eric Trump's call to 'buy the dip').
💎 Summary
The Bitcoin price is expected to fluctuate bearish in the coming week, but $112,850 is the key lifeline:
If held: Short-term rebound is expected, target $114,000;
If lost: Deep drop to $110,000, need to be wary of chain selling pressure.
Investors should closely monitor PCE data, changes in institutional holdings, and policy signals, flexibly adjust positions, and avoid blindly catching the bottom.
