In a post shared on TradingView, cryptocurrency analyst Xanrox argues that the current bull cycle is nearing its end, pointing to a potential downtrend that could see the price of $BTC drop to $60,000. This analysis comes as the $BTC is trading in a very calm phase, leading many traders and cryptocurrency analysts to reassess its next direction. Xanrox predicts that Bitcoin's top will be $122,000 before falling to $60,000. The world's largest cryptocurrency has hovered just above the price level of $118,000 for several days, struggling to decisively break above this zone but also showing no significant signs of decline. Despite this consolidation, market sentiment remains optimistic. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index continues to indicate 'greed', and most analysts still argue that Bitcoin is preparing for another upward move.
However, an interesting technical perspective challenges this optimistic consensus and issues a bearish warning. Notably, cryptocurrency analyst Xanrox identified a sell signal on the weekly candlestick chart after the $BTC reached the Fibonacci extension of 1.618 and touched the long-term trend line of 2017–2021–2025, with the most recent touch of the trend line aligning with Bitcoin's recent historical record of $122,800. According to him, the most recent touch of this trend line may be the peak of the current cycle. Additionally, he observed that the Elliott Wave structure has now completed Wave 5 of a rising wedge pattern and a larger impulse movement of Wave 5. Thus, a corrective phase is about to begin.
What comes next for Bitcoin? As shown in the chart, the next significant movement may be a drop of at least 50%, with Bitcoin falling to around $60,000 by 2026. This projection is based on previous price actions, where Bitcoin experienced price drops of 84% and 77% after touching the trend line in 2017 and 2021, respectively. The technical setup also aligns with statistical data showing that August and September historically bring increased selling pressure. Xanrox noted that while traders may wait for more confirmations, such as a break below the 50-week moving average, he personally believes that the top has already been reached. Large institutions and professional investors pay close attention to the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages.
Xanrox's perspective stands in stark contrast to the prevailing sentiment among cryptocurrency investors. The current structure of Bitcoin still shows strength on longer timeframes, and several other analysts view the recent consolidation between $117,000 and $119,000 as a base for continuation towards $130,000 and beyond. The lack of significant selling volume, firm support above the price level of $118,000 and the 50-week moving average, and optimistic indicators in altcoins like Ethereum are on-chain signs that Bitcoin's price still has room to rise before reaching a peak price in this cycle.