SEC postpones Trump ETF to September! The 110,000 defense line may collapse tonight
Institutional viewpoints are divided:
Bullish support: The head of research at Coinbase believes the market will hit bottom by the end of Q2 and recover in Q3; the Trump administration accelerates the approval of Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs, creating long-term benefits.
Bearish pressure: The Fed's hawkish stance suppresses liquidity, and the SEC postpones the Trump media Bitcoin ETF to September, with policy risks still present.
Clearing threshold migration:
Current risk point: Falling below 110,000, bulls face a liquidation of 1.09 billion; breaking above 116,700, bears face a liquidation of 2.5 billion.
Trend changes: As of July 30, the bullish support level was at 116,000, which has now shifted down to 112,000, indicating a retreat of the bullish defense line and increased bearish pressure.
Market sentiment and technical shocks
Emotional vulnerability:
Bullish dilemma: The fear and greed index is rising, leveraged bulls are densely piled up at 112,000-114,000, and falling below may trigger a multi-kill of 600-1,000 million.
Bearish risk: Breaking above 116,700 may trigger a short squeeze, pushing the coin price straight to 120,000.
Technical chain effects:
Liquidity wave: Falling below 112,000 triggers strong liquidation pressure, causing the price to drop to 110,000; breaking above 116,700 triggers a rush by bears, causing the price to soar to 120,000.
Main force manipulation traps: Large funds often draw doors to harvest.
Dragon operation
Short-term strategy:
Keep a close eye on the threshold: Breaking above 116,700 can chase the rise; falling below 112,000 requires risk avoidance.
Leverage traders: Reduce leverage! Avoid opening high-leverage contracts between 112,000-116,000.
Spot investors: Falling below 112,000 can accumulate positions in batches, the long-term bullish trend remains unchanged.
Medium-term risks:
Pay attention to Q3 recovery progress and U.S. inflation data. If inflation remains high, the Fed's hawkish signals may drag down liquidity in the crypto market linked to U.S. stocks.
Black swan warning: Sudden hawkish signals from the Fed, repeated SEC policies, or geopolitical conflicts may trigger a liquidity crisis.
Dragon summary: The key clearing point is both a liquidation powder keg and a trend accelerator. Maintain low leverage, watch the market flexibly, and avoid becoming market fuel!
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