As Bitcoin dips again to the $112,000 range, market panic emotions have sharply intensified. Many investors are inquiring whether to position in the spot market, whether the bull market has ended. However, we believe: the deep pullback in August may precisely be the most critical low window in the second half of the year.

BTC: Spike-style decline does not change the trend, pay attention to the 115-116 resistance area

From this Monday's high to today's early morning low, Bitcoin has already seen a drop of nearly 10,000 points, piercing through the $113,000 support. While this is seen as a 'crash' by most, for trend traders, it is merely a normal mid-term correction.

Current key range: $112,000–$113,000

If there is a rebound, pay attention to the resistance in the range of $115,000–$116,000, likely to become a high point before the next drop

If weakness continues, the next target may reach $107,000 or even the $102,000–$107,000 range

ETH: The rebound is not complete, has the downtrend just begun?

Ethereum currently seems resilient, but its potential hasn't been fully realized:

This round of decline only touched $3,400, and the expected correction range (3200–3400) has not yet been completed

If it can rebound to the $3,560–$3,620 range, it can be shorted again, paying attention to the $3,660 resistance

Next week may directly break through $3,400, pulling back to $3,300 or lower

Ethereum's price rhythm is slower than Bitcoin's, but that doesn't mean it's stronger; the next wave of decline may accelerate the catch-up.

Stablecoin 'compliance year': market fragmentation intensifies

Starting August 1, Hong Kong officially opens stablecoin license applications, marking the entry of stablecoins into the 'regulatory framework'. Many friends ask: Is this good news for the crypto space?

My answer is simple:

Compliance of stablecoins and the crypto trading market are two parallel lines, and there may even be structural competition.

Compliant stablecoins will be more inclined to serve the 'traditional finance + Web2' ecosystem

Non-compliant crypto assets will remain active in the decentralized world

In other words, the compliance of stablecoins is not good news for the crypto space, but rather an extension of digital finance; it benefits infrastructure projects more than the speculative market.

Altcoins: The decline continues, but opportunities are brewing

Currently, the altcoin market's decline is temporarily not deep, many mistakenly believe it is resilient, but in fact, it is because of prior adjustments. The next major drop may be quietly approaching:

If BTC falls below $110,000 and ETH drops to $3,300, altcoins may collectively drop another 10%–20%

If a collective stampede occurs, some coins may see a maximum drop of over 30%

But real opportunities are also brewing within: historical experience shows that every deep correction is the beginning of quality projects standing out.

Quality project positioning suggestions (key targets)

Take advantage of the pullback to start positioning potential coins that have ETF, policy, and thematic catalysts

DOGE & PEPE: Strong expectations for October ETF

DOGE support level: around 0.1885

PEPE support level: around 0.0000095

Pay attention to the October ETF approval time window, prepare positions in advance for cost-effective opportunities

PENGU: NFT+Meme dual thematic ETF application has been confirmed

Canary has submitted a PENGU spot ETF application to the SEC, becoming the first mixed NFT-Meme ETF target

Support range: 0.028–0.030, focus on subsequent trends

ENA: Strong recovery-type project

Each major drop is followed by a quick pullback, showing funding attention and strong logic

It is recommended to gradually buy on dips during fluctuations, focusing on the strength of the pullback

LTC: Oversold signal reappears

Daily level has three oversold signals, the first two appeared at the bottom

If validated again, the current price area may be the golden entry zone

AAVE: Re-testing EMA200 is a key observation point

Currently not touching daily EMA200

If oversold signals resonate again, bottom-fishing attempts can be made

Macroeconomic policy: Is the September rate cut already a 'default script'?

CME data shows that the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 39% to 80.3%, due to the significant downward revision of this month's non-farm data, signaling a clear path for rate cuts:

From May to July, the average new employment was only 30,000, nearing the edge of labor market stall

Historically, the correction on August 21, 2024, was larger, but the market reaction was relatively calm

Now the market is clearly 'scared', reacting sharply

The conclusion is clear:

Interest rate cuts on September 19, 2025, are almost a foregone conclusion.

If interest rates are cut by then, it will constitute a mid-term benefit for overall risk assets.

Summary of strategy suggestions

Final reminder:

August and September may become the 'opportunity window' for positioning altcoins in this round of market. Wait a bit longer, and you might miss a month's rebound; enter a bit earlier, and you might catch the beginning of a mini bull market.

Real winners often dare to take action when the deepest panic strikes.