Hotspot overview: the stablecoin sector leads strongly, while Meme once again stages a plot twist

Recently, market hotspots have shifted again, and the following sectors are worth paying attention to:

1. Stablecoin concepts collectively show unusual movements:

Representative projects like CFX, ENA, RESOLV, and CVX showed synchronized rebounds, indicating that the main trend of stablecoins is likely to continue.

Especially since ENA will unlock 100 million tokens on August 5, accounting for about 3% of circulation, the event window may bring short-term volatility opportunities.

2. Public chain project $IP remains strong against the trend:

Performed outstandingly under market fluctuations, with attention on the underlying funding structure, speculated to be related to Grayscale Trust.

3. Zora on the Base chain shows signs of rebound:

The SocialFi concept is warming up, with deep participation from Coinbase, potentially extending its ecological influence.

4. The Meme sector is brewing currents:

TROLL surged significantly, triggering speculation of 'whale operations' in the market, with social buzz rapidly escalating.

August operational strategy keywords: defense, defense, and more defense

A recently concluded long-term meeting pointed out that controlling risks and preventing drawdowns should be the top priority in August.

From historical statistics (2000-2024 data):

The strongest months for US stocks: March, April, May, July, October, November, December

Months with relatively high risk: January, June, August, September

Bitcoin's monthly performance also highly overlaps:

Since 2013, August only had 4 times of gains, while losses occurred 8 times

The average return rate is +1.75%, but the median is -8.04%

This indicates that the risk of drawdown is severely underestimated, especially near peaks; blind optimism should be treated with caution.

Important observation points in August: China-US tariff policies may become potential flashpoints

Please pay close attention to:

August 12 - Major announcements regarding China-US trade tariff policies may occur, potentially becoming the biggest macro external variable this month, directly impacting risk assets.

ETH funding shows abnormal signals: exchange reserves have significantly decreased, and the degree of chip locking has increased

Ethereum performed brilliantly in July, overall rising nearly 60%, but the underlying funding dynamics are also worth digging into:

Significant outflow of funds from CEX:

Throughout the month, about 1.1 million ETH were withdrawn from exchanges, meaning that the circulating supply decreased by nearly 5%.

A similar phenomenon also appears in BTC:

In June, BTC flowed out of exchanges by nearly 140,000 (from 2.549 million to 2.41 million), but the price only rose moderately;

Exploded suddenly until July, reaching a new high of $123,000.

Logic summary: Outflow from exchanges = reduced chips = tightened market supply, usually preparing for a surge.

The ETH holding structure is also changing:

During July, large holders with over 1 million tokens began to concentrate their chips.

However, looking back at CEX trading volume, during the drawdown from 3940 to 3350, the trading volume did not increase, while ETH reserves continued to decrease.

Conclusion: Chips have not flowed into the market but are continuously locked; the supply-demand relationship in exchanges has 'masked' the true structure.

Interest rate cuts ≠ bull market, don't flip the logic!

The vast majority of investors have a misconception: 'Federal Reserve rate cuts = bull market takeoff', which does not hold in the crypto space!

Looking at the past four rounds of BTC bull markets and interest rate cycles:

2017 bull market (BTC reaches $19,800)

➤ The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, with rates at 1.25%-1.50%

2021 bull market (BTC hits $69,000)

➤ The interest rate cuts were completed back in March 2020, and BTC waited nearly two years to take off

2023 market situation (BTC rises to $73,000)

➤ In the interest rate hike cycle, it has not been directly driven by interest rate cuts

2024 major rise phase (BTC breaks through $123,000)

➤ The Federal Reserve's interest rates have hardly moved

Pattern summary:

Expectations of interest rate cuts can help heat up the market;

After actual interest rate cuts, it may actually take a long time to rise;

When interest rates remain unchanged, it is easier to create opportunities for upward movement (regardless of highs or lows).

Why are expectations more important than the policies themselves?

The real trigger for a bull market in the crypto space is often not macro policies, but changes in application scenarios or market structures:

2017 bull market: Ethereum and smart contract concepts first exploded

2021 market: NFT, GameFi, institutional entry, ETF speculation driven

Funding and structure are the main lines: interest rate cuts are essentially tools to 'rescue the economy', not indicative of sufficient market confidence.

Risk assets may react with delays or advances: often rising first in 'expectation', and may have already started adjusting after the actual interest rate cuts.