The non-farm payroll data for July has finally 'blown up'.
Non-farm payrolls collapsed, and interest rate cuts are back?
Bad news remains bad, but this time's bad data has also driven the probability of a September rate cut up to 90%, with the market re-betting on the 'return of dovishness'. The dollar index plunged to 98.6 overnight, hitting a recent low.
This is a short-term positive for Bitcoin—after the data was released, Bitcoin did see a slight rise. However, soon after, the U.S. stock market opened weakly, coupled with Trump's new tariff policies, risk sentiment weakened again, dragging Bitcoin down.
The new tariffs will take effect on August 7, which also provides a short-term negotiation window for the market.
However, currently, risk aversion is rising, gold prices are increasing, U.S. Treasury yields are declining, while Bitcoin is consolidating at high levels, showing clear pressure.
Bitcoin technical pattern: gap has been filled, where is the next support?
Currently, Bitcoin has fallen to a low of 112,700, and the CME gap from three weeks ago has also been completely filled. The critical 4-hour MA200 line has been tested multiple times and has ultimately broken below. Next, we should pay attention to the 50-day moving average (around 112,000) as this support.
This position is critical; since the rebound in April, it has only rarely been broken.
If it can hold, I think it would be a good short-term bottom.
On-chain data shows that the short-term average cost is around 105,800, which is still above this area, indicating that we haven't really reached 'extreme panic'.
Panic level: This time is much more rational than last time.
In this round of decline, about 21,400 Bitcoins were sold at a loss—although quite a few, compared to the last high after the peak, the scale is much smaller.
This indicates that current market participants are more stable, with more structural profit-taking instead of collective panic selling.
In terms of ETF inflows, there was a slight outflow on Thursday and Friday, and Coinbase also showed a negative premium, indicating that domestic demand in the U.S. has slowed down. This reflects that institutional-led capital in the U.S. is exiting.
Death cross appears, momentum is weakening
CryptoQuant data shows that Delta's institutional Bitcoin reserves have begun to decline, with the 20-day moving average crossing below the 50-day moving average, forming a typical 'death cross'. This pattern historically indicates that Bitcoin may enter a period of mid-term consolidation or adjustment.
SwissBlock also pointed out that the price momentum indicator has turned from positive to negative, indicating that the current upward momentum is exhausting, and a new upward base has not yet formed.
The turnover phase of the third bull market is ongoing.
Currently in the market, 96% of Bitcoin is in a profitable state, which indicates the confidence of holders on one hand, but also represents significant potential selling pressure. Without new funds stepping in, Bitcoin prices can easily get stuck in high-level fluctuations.
Structural adjustment, waiting for new catalysts
It’s like a high-speed engine running for too long; it needs to cool down before refueling to continue the sprint. Although short-term liquidity is poor, if the Federal Reserve begins its rate cut cycle in August or September, we can still expect a structural rebound.
There will be short-term fluctuations, but in the larger direction, I still see Bitcoin continuing to rise in the second half of the year. Especially against the backdrop of a weakening dollar index, a global M2 recovery, and a gradual restart of ETF inflows, Bitcoin still has leading potential.
Summary: This effective pullback has brought opportunities to the market, structural reconstruction is underway, and with rate cut expectations returning, it may still ignite the next round of increases. Currently, Bitcoin at 112,000 is the lifeline to watch in the short term. If it holds, the next high probability is another rebound.
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