1. First, let's talk about what everyone is most concerned about: Will the market continue to decline? My answer is very clear: It will decline throughout August, but there may be a short-term rebound.
From a macro perspective, August and September are both weak months for Bitcoin, with significant downward pressure. Currently, there are no signals indicating that the long-term trend has bottomed because:
1. The Greed and Fear Index is currently at 50, which is in the neutral zone. At the very least, this index needs to drop below 40 for panic, or ideally below 25 for extreme panic, which would be a signal of a bottom. Currently, bulls still have some hope and are not desperate, so there is still room to go down.
2. The daily MACD has a death cross and the RSI has not yet reached the oversold zone. Both have come down from the overbought zone to the neutral zone and have not reached the oversold zone, indicating that the large levels have not yet bottomed. I have been talking about this data for the past few days, and I hope you have been paying attention to me.
However, the short-term small levels have already been oversold, and around 113,000 there is good resilience. I think there is a chance to rebound to around 115,000 to 116,000, and then it will be safer to short. Chasing shorts after such a drop feels less stable. Instead, I opened a small long position at 113,500. I mentioned this yesterday; after such a drop, I really had to grit my teeth and open a position, hoping to catch a rebound.
To make it easier for beginners, I will summarize: Overall, the long-term outlook for August is bearish, and the bottom has not yet appeared. In the short term, it has already been oversold, and I do not recommend chasing shorts; there may be a slight rebound. Those who are aggressive can go long to around 115,000. For shorting, it is best to wait until 116,000.
My short-term short position at 120,000 has been forced to turn into a long-term position because I saw the downward trend, so I have not closed it and can still collect the funding rate from the long position. The above is based on normal trends; the market may occasionally have some unforeseen circumstances, and we will analyze those separately if they occur. I hope everyone can get through August smoothly.
