Earlier today, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced another sharp fluctuation, briefly dropping to $114,116, which instantly triggered panic selling in multiple exchanges, including Binance. From various on-chain and exchange indicators, this round of decline contains intense capital squeeze and emotional release.

Liquidation wave sweeping! $760 million evaporated

According to a Quicktake analysis article published by CryptoQuant author Amr Taha:

After BTC broke through the key support level of $115,000, Binance's open interest dropped sharply from $14 billion to below $13.5 billion, with a daily decline of nearly 4%, typically related to concentrated liquidation.

  • CoinGlass data confirms that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $760 million, with a total of 183,514 traders being forcibly liquidated, this round of 'bloodbath' is mainly focused on long positions.

Bearish sentiment intensifies in the derivatives market

Further data shows that Binance's net buying volume plummeted to -$160 million. This is an indicator that measures the market's 'active transaction willingness':

  • Positive value → Indicates active buying and bullish sentiment

  • Negative value → Indicates strong active selling and bearish sentiment

Current negative values are significant, indicating that the market leaders are aggressively selling, with active selling overwhelming buying pressure, further intensifying the bearish pressure on BTC.

Taha also pointed out that this wave of sharp decline is accompanied by a simultaneous downward trend in net buying and open contracts, showing that a large number of long positions are being passively liquidated, and the phenomenon of 'cutting losses and exiting' is quite evident at the end of the trading day.

Rebound imminent? Selling pressure release may become a turning point

Although the current bearish signals are dense, Taha believes that this may instead form the basis for a short-term rebound. The reasons are as follows:

  • After the liquidation of long positions, the leverage burden decreases

  • Position structure gradually lightens

  • Potential bottom-fishing funds may be waiting for confirmation signals

Market sentiment and leverage positions have been fully released in this round of decline, and if there are subsequent fundamental positives (such as ETFs, macro easing, etc.), BTC is expected to rebound short-term and repair technical indicators.

Internal altcoin strategy review: Stop loss is key

Looking back at the recent recommendations for altcoin operations from the internal group, a total of five coins have been recommended from July 29 to now, of which four have triggered stop losses, leaving only one, EMMM, still in profit (+60%).

However, the overall strategy remains effective: the gains from profitable coins are sufficient to cover the losses from the other stop-loss coins, with a total return of 114% over eleven days. This also indicates that:

The stop-loss mechanism and portfolio strategy remain the core weapons to cope with volatile markets.

Altcoin market: Boiling frogs in warm water, waiting for ETF catalysts?

The current altcoin market is in an extremely passive state, with 'falling volumes on declines and no volume on rises' becoming the main theme. The 4-hour candlestick chart is almost entirely bearish, and investors generally have no expectations for a rebound.

However, logically, there are still two potential catalysts that could influence the altcoin trend:

① Expectations for Fed rate cuts

Although the market generally expects a rate cut within the year, the ongoing policy game between 'Trump and Powell' continues to evolve, leaving the timing of the first rate cut uncertain. Even if a rate cut does happen, as the positive impact has already been priced in, the market may enter a phase of 'positive news leading to a decline' after the first cut.

② Progress of altcoin ETFs and ETH staking approval

Compared to rate cuts, the altcoin market is more focused on the progress of Ethereum staking review and whether altcoin ETFs will be included in the SEC review process. Especially after the successful approval of the Ethereum ETF, the altcoin sector may welcome a rotation market.

Is the altcoin about to reach a 'crossroads'?

Currently, BTC has completed the expected correction to around $10,000, and if it transitions into a range of consolidation, altcoins may have a chance to secure a temporary breathing window.

However, it is still important to note:

  • If Bitcoin continues to set new lows, it will again drag down altcoins

  • If BTC consolidates, altcoins have a chance to rebound

  • For retail investors who were previously out of the market or lightly positioned, this is a 'potential low-entry window' to observe buying points, but do not easily go all in; defensive space should still be reserved.

Summary

  • Bitcoin dropped to a low of $114,116, triggering a liquidation wave of $760 million

  • Derivatives data has fully turned bearish, with Binance's open contracts plummeting and net buying turning negative

  • Internal altcoin strategy reminder: Strict stop losses can still outperform in a volatile market

  • The approval of altcoin ETFs and ETH staking might become a catalyst for market rebound

  • Whether Bitcoin stabilizes will determine the next direction for altcoins

The current moment is a 'critical phase' for repairing expectations and speculative games, please remain rational.