As of August 2, Ethereum ( $ETH ) is currently trading at $3528 (with a low of $3431), combined with real-time news, on-chain data, and technical indicator analysis, the post long-short competition trend can be comprehensively demonstrated as follows:

📉 1. Market status and technical indicator analysis

1. **Short-term weakness dominates**

- **Price breaks key support**: ETH has fallen below the psychological threshold of $3700, with a single-day drop of 6.12% on August 1, hitting a low of $3491, marking a new low since July 18.

- **Technical indicators are bearish**:

- In the 4-hour cycle, prices are running below all moving averages (7-day/15-day/30-day/60-day), forming a bearish arrangement, with MACD dead cross and green bars expanding, ADX above 25 and -DI dominant, confirming a strong short-term downtrend.

- RSI (30 minutes) dropped to 34.3, close to the oversold zone but no divergence reversal signal has appeared yet, reflecting that the downside momentum has not weakened.

2. **On-chain data and fund flows**

- **Significant institutional selling pressure**: On July 29, large sell orders worth $335 million appeared within two minutes, causing the price to flash crash from $3860 to $3619, indicating profit-taking by whale accounts.

- **Net outflow from exchanges**: On August 1, there was a net outflow of $113 million, and a 30-day net outflow of $138 million, with continuous short-term selling pressure but long-term holding positions not loosening.

- **Derivatives liquidation intensifies volatility**: Long positions worth $163 million were liquidated within an hour (96% of the total), with high-leverage longs being wiped out, leading to a spiral price decline.

#ETH走势分析 ⚔️ 2. Key factors in long-short competition

#### Bearish dominant force (short-term)

- **Macroeconomic risks drag down**: Adjustments to US tariff policy intensify risk aversion, putting pressure on risk assets.

- **Technical structure damaged**: After losing $3700, key support has shifted down to $3557 (the low point of the July range), and if broken, it may trigger algorithmic selling.

- **Deteriorating sentiment**: A decline in derivatives open interest accompanied by an increase in trading volume reflects short-term speculative funds exiting.

Potential support for bulls (mid-long term)

- **Institutional funds accumulate on dips**: In July, ETF net inflows reached $510 million, a new high for the year, with institutional cost ranges concentrated between $3358 and $3875, forming a bottom buffer.

- **Supply tightening**: Exchange ETH reserves have decreased by 1 million in the last 30 days, and the proportion of long-term holders has increased; if the price approaches $3400, it may attract accumulation.

- **Technical oversold rebound demand**: Current prices are still up 151.6% from the 52-week low ($1387), and long-term moving averages (50-day/200-day) show a bullish arrangement, with mid-term trend intact.

🔮 3. Future trend scenario analysis

Short-term (24-48 hours)

- **Downside risk**: If the price cannot reclaim the $3557 support, it may test $3383 (the starting point of the April rebound) and $3300 (EMA200).

- **Rebound opportunity**: If the oversold recovery is accompanied by a volume breakout above $3620 (4-hour BBI line), it may trigger short covering, targeting a retest of $3700.

Mid-term (1-2 weeks)

- **Bear market scenario**: Losing $3300 will confirm a deep pullback, targeting $3175-$2852 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level).

- **Bull market scenario**: If the price holds above $3400 and stabilizes, combined with continuous ETF fund inflows, it is expected to regroup and challenge $3960, which, if broken, may accelerate towards $4000.

Long-term (1 month+)

- **The key watershed is $4000**: Historical failures to break through three times have led to >60% crashes, and if successfully broken, it will liquidate $930 million worth of short positions, opening up space of $4500-$4800.

- **Fundamental support**: Recovery of DeFi and improved Layer2 adoption, on-chain activity achieves price band (+1σ) pointing to a target of $4500.

> The table below summarizes the current key price ranges and the strength of long and short signals:

> | **Resistance Level** | 3620-3623 | 4-hour BBI line/bearish position dense area | ★★★☆☆ |

> | **Strength Weakness Divide** | 3557 | July range low point | ★★★★☆ |

> | **Support Level** | 3383-3400 | EMA200/institutional cost range lower limit | ★★★★☆ |

> | **Crash Point** | Below 3300 | Fibonacci 50% retracement/trend reversal point | ★★★☆☆ |

> | **Reversal Point** | 3960-4000 | Historic strong resistance/short liquidation threshold | ★★★★★ |

💡 4. Operational suggestions

- **Aggressive strategy**:

Lightly short near 3620, with a stop loss at 3740 and a target of 3383; if volume breaks through 3620, then switch to a short-term long.

- **Robust strategy**:

Wait for a phased accumulation of long positions in the range of $3300-$3400, aiming for a mid-term rebound, with a stop loss at $3175; or wait for a daily close above $3960 before chasing the rise.

> **Core logic**: Short-term bears dominate but the depth is limited, with strong institutional support below $3400; mid-term direction depends on whether the weekly resistance at $3960 can be reclaimed. Close attention should be paid to August ETF fund flows and the transmission of risk aversion sentiment in US stocks.

Risk warning: If Bitcoin falls below key support or if US stock volatility suddenly rises, ETH may accelerate its bottoming process in conjunction, requiring strict stop-loss.