A decade-long self-redemption
In the winter of 2014, I curled up in a rental room in Beijing, staring blankly at the loss of 860,000 in my account. That was all my savings after seven years of work, plus borrowed money from friends and family, turned to nothing in the volatility of Bitcoin. Today, ten years later, as I calmly manage eight-digit cryptocurrency assets, I truly understand: the crypto circle is never a myth of wealth creation, but a brutal survival game.
1. Trend Rules: The Art of Reconciling with the Market
A Bloody Lesson: When Bitcoin plummeted from $20,000 in 2017, I lost 230,000 in a single day by counter-trend buying
Survival Rules:
- Only participate in markets above the 30-day moving average (filtering out 80% of ineffective fluctuations)
- The buy after nine consecutive declines must meet:
✓ Trading volume shrinks to below 40% of the 30-day average
✓ Weekly increase in stablecoin reserves in exchanges > 15%
✓ Funding rate for perpetual contracts turns negative
Case Study: On the 11th day after the LUNA crash in 2022, BTC generated a buy signal that met the criteria, followed by a 127% rebound over the next three months
2. Stop-Loss Philosophy: A Lifeline for Professional Players
Data Truth:
- Investors who delay stop-loss see 92% of losses expand
- Accounts that strictly enforce a 5% stop-loss line have an annual return rate of 47%
My Iron Rule:
1. Time Stop-Loss: Exit immediately if a position is not profitable after 24 hours
2. Space Stop-Loss: Forcing liquidation if a single loss reaches 3% of capital
3. Emotional Stop-Loss: Stop trading for three days after two consecutive misjudgments
Key Battle: March 2020 "Black Thursday", avoided a 40% one-day drop by setting stop-loss orders in advance
3. Price and Volume Code: Crack the Main Force Behavior
Characteristics of Main Force Building Positions:
- When breaking out with increased volume at a low level:
✓ Volume reaches three times the 30-day average
✓ A surge in large on-chain transfers
✓ Net outflow from exchanges continues for three days
Death Signal:
- New price highs with insufficient volume at 50% of previous highs
- Interest rates on exchange loans plummet
Practical Record: In May 2021, discovered ETH's price-volume divergence and cleared positions in advance, avoiding a subsequent 56% drop
4. The Reward of Patience: Hunting Big Bull Coins
Gold Buying Point Model:
1. Complete over 30% deep correction
2. The 120-day moving average begins to flatten
3. Weekly RSI returns to the 40-50 range
4. Futures open interest drops to a three-month low
Classic Case: In October 2023, SOL pulled back to the 120-day moving average, and then rose 580% over the next five months
5. Opportunity Cost: Stay away from zombie coins
Screening Criteria:
- Volatility below 3% for five consecutive days, immediately remove from the observation pool
- If the market capitalization ranking drops more than 10 places, it will be permanently removed
Efficiency Revolution: In 2024, eliminate 87% of coins based on this standard, focusing on 13% of efficient targets
6. The Miracle of Compound Interest: The Comeback of Small Funds
Snowball Formula:
- Single investment ≤ 20% of capital
- Withdraw principal immediately after a 10% profit
- Set a 3% trailing stop on the profit part
Mathematical Power: Stable monthly profit of 15%, which can reach 100 times in three years
Final Chapter: The Awakening of Survivors
In these ten years, I have seen too many genius traders fall, while those who ultimately survive are often the "fools" willing to abide by simple rules. I still maintain a few habits:
- Read Glassnode's on-chain report every morning
- Weekly statistics on capital flow in exchanges
- Monthly backtesting of trading system effectiveness
If you are in the fog, remember:
1. Print out your most painful losing trade and compare it with the rules of this article one by one
2. Starting tomorrow, keep the risk of a single trade within 3%
3. Always keep six months of living expenses before re-entering the market
(Message me "Ten-Year Summary" to get my complete trading log, including detailed illustrations of 21 key battles)
