August Curse Awakens: With a 67% Probability of Crash, Whales Transfer $9.4 Billion in BTC Overnight!
1. Market Sentiment Turns Cautious
"August Curse" Strengthens Bearish Expectations
In the past 12 years, Bitcoin has a 67% probability of falling in August-September, with a median average drop of -7.49%, only decreasing in the face of a half-year upward trend. The current market has reacted:
Fear and Greed Index has dropped 6 points to 75 over 6 days, anxiety is spreading;
Bearish options premiums have surpassed bullish ones, large capital is hedging against downside risks at high prices.
Leverage Risk Heightens
On the first day of August, $400 million in liquidations occurred, with $115,000–$116,000 being a key liquidation line, falling below could trigger programmatic sell-offs.
2. Macroeconomic Negative Resonance
Fed Delays Rate Cuts Suppressing Speculative Sentiment
The hawkish decision by the July FOMC led to a capital shift towards government bonds, weakening the short-term appeal of cryptocurrencies.
New Tariffs Raise Costs
The 25%-50% tariffs on mining material effective from August 1 may lead to a surge in mining costs, with U.S. officials estimating inflation to rise another 2.1–3% in the short term.
3. Major Capital Movement Warning
Selling Pressure from Miners and Long-term Holders
Miners transferred 15,000 BTC to exchanges in July;
Long-term holders' on-chain net positions turned negative, similar actions previously triggered a crash in February 2024.
Ancient Whales Awakening
An address dormant for 10 years transferred 80,000 BTC, historical patterns indicate such movements are often accompanied by significant pullbacks.
4. Institutional Demand Cooling
U.S. Buying Weakens
Coinbase's premiums turned negative, domestic demand weakened;
CME Bitcoin futures positions decreased sharply by 13%.
ETF Fund Inflows Slow
In July, net inflows were $6 billion, but the 30-day average inflow dropped from $62.4 billion to $59.3 billion, supporting momentum is waning.
5. Practical Strategies
Short-term: Keep a close eye on the support levels of $112,000–$106,000, beware of the September Fed meeting and changes in the U.S. election;
Medium to Long-term: After volatility compresses to 34%, a trend market may emerge, with a 46% probability of reaching $150,000 by year-end, breaking $120,000 will trigger a short squeeze.
Conclusion: Seasonal patterns combined with macroeconomic negatives create significant pullback pressure in August, but the logic of a medium to long-term bull market remains unchanged. Rational investors should keep their powder dry and wait for opportunities after the panic has subsided.
Opportunities and risks coexist in the crypto circle, remain vigilant, and timing is key. The blockchain circle has also discovered a short-term skyrocketing project with huge doubling potential! To keep up, follow the blockchain circle for free sharing! Focus on Shenlong Trend
