Bitcoin's price surge has stalled due to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, contrary to expectations of a rate cut. This move has led to a decrease in the probability of a rate cut in September from 90% to 41% and increased the likelihood of no rate cuts throughout 2025 to 25%. As a result, Bitcoin is trading sideways below the $120,000 resistance level, with some analysts predicting a potential downturn.
Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price:
- Interest Rate Decision: The Fed's decision to hold rates steady has reduced expectations for easing monetary policy in Q4.
- Long-term Holders (LTHs) Reducing Holdings: On-chain data shows LTHs distributing approximately 207,000 BTC in the last 30 days, indicating a strategic adjustment.
- Record High Unrealized Profits: The total unrealized profit has reached $1.4 trillion, reflecting potential pressure from supply soon to be realized.
- Declining Market Confidence: The Greed & Fear Index is gradually declining, indicating cooling risk sentiment.
Market Outlook:
- Short-term Breakout Prospects Challenged: Bitcoin's price prospects are being challenged due to the lack of new catalysts and diminishing expectations for easing monetary policy.
- Potential Price Movement: Without new catalysts, Bitcoin may get stuck below the resistance level of $120,000, with increased profit-taking pressure and weakened confidence potentially narrowing the uptrend in Q4.
Investor Insights:
- Cardone Capital's Recent Acquisition: Cardone Capital acquired 100 Bitcoin amid the market dip, adding to its existing holdings of 1,000 BTC worth approximately $115 million. The firm plans to acquire up to 3,000 more Bitcoin by 2025.