On the first day of August, the crypto market welcomed a 'good start': Bitcoin crashed to $114,000, Ethereum plummeted to around $3600, and altcoins took a significant dive.
BTC
Last night, Bitcoin surged to around $119,000, then fell to $114,300 in the early morning, a retracement of about 4400 points.
Reasons for the crash include:
The decline in US stocks has transmitted to the crypto market, the US tariff war has caused market panic, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $114.69 million yesterday, Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish speech led to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations, and PCE data exceeding expectations became a direct trigger.
Currently, Bitcoin is at the support area of the 2-hour channel's lower boundary, showing a bearish structure of 'lower highs and lower lows'. Although it has filled the CME gap, the reaction is tepid, and the extreme retracement could be down to $112000.
If it retraces to the $113800-$112000 range, this is a short-term bottom-fishing range, with a pullback of about 20% from the top, and as a previous high resistance/support switching position, a rebound of 2-3 thousand points is expected.
ETH
Ethereum has faced pressure and adjusted after a unilateral rise, with a focus on the $3600 round number. If it does not break, you can go long at $3636-$3606 for the short term; if it breaks down but is a false break, you can enter around $3588/$3572, add positions at $3508, and reduce positions at $3500 for defense.
During the day, pay attention to the $3745-$3770 range for a rebound. It is recommended to only go long at lower levels and not short, while being wary of it developing an independent trend.
SOL
The SOL trend is weak, with highs continuously lowering. In early trading, it has dropped below $170. During the day, pay attention to the $165-168 range, and light leverage can be involved. Spot can also be gradually built up (buying in batches at $168-163-158).
Altcoins
Bitcoin slightly retraced, and altcoins performed a direct high dive—last year's bull market has become a legend; now this market is simply a 'money-losing simulator'. Bottom fishing at mid-levels, chasing highs to the ceiling, being taught a lesson by bulls when shorting, having full positions when encountering a black swan, and going long only to break support lines...
So the question arises—how should this generation of investors operate to avoid being cut out (in a tragic world)?
1. 'Long Bitcoin and Ethereum, Short Altcoins' Strategy
This strategy is suitable for operation when the market is flat. When shorting altcoins, prioritize those with high market cap, non-leading, weak trends, and low attention. Diversify investments and set stop-losses to prevent a single coin from soaring.
If the market turns bullish, Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to lead the rise; if it turns bearish, altcoins will struggle to be independent, while Bitcoin and Ethereum will have institutional support.
Situations that could invalidate this hedging idea: altcoins continuously outperforming Ethereum, or Ethereum oscillating/dropping while altcoins decline less. Recent experience suggests this is unlikely.
2. Binance homepage 'New Coin Launch - Contracts'
Select high market cap, contract-only worthless coins, short them with low leverage, treating the positions as hedge fund operations. Many people catch new coins launched on Binance or Korean exchanges, using short-term high liquidity and market-making intensity to trade long, which is essentially simple speculation. After the market-making period, observe for distribution signals, then try shorting with stop-loss.
In terms of spot, you can gradually accumulate large market cap tokens, such as BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE, SUI, SOL, PEPE, PENGU, etc. Market conditions change quickly, and if updates are not timely, you can scan the code to follow the public account. If you have questions, send a private message to seize opportunities in time.
