Is it a crash or a washout? Don't let panic push you off the bus. The main upward wave window has opened in August; the spikes behind are the last chance for accumulation.

Last night's 'spike drama' did not disappoint — BTC once fell below 114300 USD, and ETH briefly fell below 3600, many people were swept out again, and those who were heartbroken and liquidated should be many.

However, structurally, this is still the oscillating range script that we have repeatedly emphasized:

Bitcoin quickly rebounded after breaking key support, accurately hitting the spike position in the short term;

ETH has stubbornly held 3600 and has regained 3700, performing even stronger.

The current trend is clearly a range market of **'pressure falling back, support rebounding', with no obvious trend breakthrough. There may be a small rebound in the short term, but if BTC falls below 114000** and ETH breaks below 3500, it will mean structural damage, and a deeper adjustment will officially begin.

Operation suggestion: Do not chase shorts, do not bottom fish, better to wait than to rush.

Now is not the time for emotional trading.

Don't blindly chase shorts: prices are already close to the support area, and the risk is not worth it;

Also, don't easily bottom fish: the grinding market + frequent spikes make it very easy to be harvested;

The most stable way is: wait for a rebound to lay out shorts, or wait for signals to buy low on longs.

When the market is difficult to operate, observing is the best offense.

My judgment: the adjustment is nearing its end, and the bottom may be seen by next week at the latest.

I believe this wave of decline is already nearing its end.

From a technical perspective, the short-term indicators have fully released, and the emotional aspect is gradually bottoming out. August-September is the 'bull market launch window' that I have repeatedly emphasized, and I still maintain this judgment.

After the adjustment ends, the main upward wave may come.

Don't wait until the market takes off to regret not getting on board; the real time left for layout may only be 1 to 2 weeks.

Sector direction: On-chain hotspots & Foundation trends

1. The joint speculation logic of SEI + MAD

The SEI chain ETF application and Circle endorsement indicate 'capital support' for the chain;

Real activation still relies on 'on-chain memes'; $MAD is likely to be the first ignition point.

The traces of manipulation behind are obvious; it's a high-odds gamble.

However, currently gmgn does not support SEI chain data, making on-chain tracking inconvenient; short-term operations need to pay special attention to position control.

2. The ETH Foundation continues to sell off.

Every time the ETH Foundation starts selling coins, the market almost always 'bleeds out'. Now it starts to cash out again, resulting in: ETH under pressure, and altcoins are worse off.

Apart from BTC and ETH holding up, many coins are on the path to zero; those who are reluctant to cut losses can only be 'educated by the market'.

Suggestions for altcoin layout (buying low in batches strategy)

Regarding altcoins, advocate buying low in batches, preferably selecting large market cap + hot targets. Recommended to pay attention to the following coins:

BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE, SUI, SOL, PEPE, PENGU

For retail investors, this is an excellent accumulation period.

Buy in despair, sell at a peak;

The window for accumulation may only be 1-2 weeks left; the main upward wave will not wait for anyone afterward.

Hotcoin commentary:

1. $VINE (current price 0.109)

Suggestion: Go long directly at the current price;

Defensive level: 0.100;

Target range: 0.14 - 0.17;

Technical pattern: Descending wedge breakout expected, with large oscillation range; remember to secure profits.

2. $PENGU (current price 0.034)

The small-level stop-loss signal is clear, and the trend is stronger than expected;

High cost-performance ratio, suitable for short-term rebounds;

Targeting the 0.042-0.05 range.

3. $USELESS

Retracement has reached 50%, with short-term rebound expectations;

BONK's leading platform has reached the support area;

It is suggested to reduce positions in batches near 0.00M, dynamically adjusting based on the strength of the rebound.

Macro hint: Don't be fooled by illusions; the market is waiting for a 'rate cut excuse'.

Don't be fooled by the current volatility suppression; the Federal Reserve will eventually lower interest rates, just waiting for a 'reasonable excuse' to act:

1. Whoever acts first is the scapegoat.

2. Those who act last can act with justification.

3. Political games always dominate the rhythm from behind.

For the market, real opportunities often arise at the worst emotional times.

So please remember: the current panic may be the beginning of a shift in golden chips.

End of the decline, the layout window has appeared, testing support with spikes, and the main force is picking up chips while suppressing prices; the trend is still within the script, and the key level not breaking is an opportunity; the market direction choice will come within 1-2 weeks; if you don't layout now, later it will be chasing the rise.