**1. Bitcoin after halving: Accumulation or another rally?**
- ** the price has not yet reached the expected ATH (~$150,000).
- **ETF flow stagnates** – BlackRock and Fidelity still hold, but retail interest is weaker.
- Key levels: **$148,000 (support) vs. $160,000 (resistance)**.
**2. Ethereum and rollup wars**
- **Ethereum ETF still under discussion** – SEC delays decision, ETH remains in the range of **$2,500–$3,200**.
- **Layer-2 are fighting for dominance**:
- **Arbitrum** leads in TVL, but **zkEVM** (Polygon, zkSync) are gaining traction.
- **Solana vs. Ethereum** – SOL remains the favorite for low-cost transactions.
**3. DeFi comeback: Liquid restaking and RWA**
- **EigenLayer** (restaking) attracted **$15B+ in TVL** – a new trend in securing networks.
- **Real-World Assets (RWA)** are growing:
- Ondo Finance (tokenized bonds).
- MakerDAO increased exposure in US Treasury bonds.
**4. AI and decentralized computing**
- Projects like **Render (RNDR), Bittensor (TAO), Akash (AKT)** benefit from AI hype.
- The combination of **AI + DePIN** (decentralized physical infrastructure) is a hot trend.
**5. Memecoins: Still alive, but risky**
- **Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), new Solana memecoins** (e.g., WIF, BONK) – high volatility.
**6. Regulation: USA vs. global shift**
- **SEC vs. Coinbase/Kraken** – still unclear whether ETH is a security.
- **MiCA (EU)** has come into force – stablecoins under pressure (USDT, USDC must comply with rules). ---
**Outlook for the next 6 months (from August 2025)**
1. **Bitcoin: Macro + ETF flow will decide**
- If the Fed starts lowering rates (expected **Q2/Q3 2025**), BTC could break **$160,000**.
- Risk: Another correction below **$100,000**
2. **Ethereum: Everything depends on the ETF**
- If the SEC approves the ETF, ETH could jump to **$4,000+**.
- If not, it will remain in a sideways trend.
3. **Altcoin season? Depends on BTC**
- **AI and DePIN projects** (RNDR, TAO, AKT) can grow independently of BTC.
- **Layer-2 tokens** (ARB, OP, STRK) – potential if Ethereum gains traction.
4. **RWA and institutionalization**
- Tokenization of bonds and real estate will grow (BlackRock is already testing blockchain solutions).
5. **Regulation: Clearer rules = greater adoption**
- If the USA approves clear laws, institutional capital may enter more massively.
### **Summary: What to watch?**
✅ **Fed and rates** – main market mover.
✅ **Ethereum ETF decision** – key for altcoins.
✅ **RWA + AI projects** – long-term growth potential.
✅ **Regulation in the USA/EU** – will affect stablecoins and exchanges.
**Scenarios:**
- **Bullish**: BTC $170,000+, ETH $4,000+, altcoin rally (AI, RWA).
- **Bearish**: Correction below $100,000 (BTC) if ETFs fail and the Fed does not lower rates.
