After crawling and rolling in the crypto world for so long, I've experienced the despair of liquidation, the heartbreak of losing a down payment, and the nights crying over K-lines at 3 AM. Now that my account has stabilized with a profit of 130,000 USDT, my biggest insight isn't 'finally finding the secret to making money,' but the lessons bought with real money are more precious than any indicator.
Many people often ask: 'Xiaowan, how do you select coins now?' To be honest, my method is so simple that you might laugh, but it’s this method that helped me turn from 'losing money' to 'steady profits' — after ten years of trial and error, I understand that the path to making money lies in the simplest rules.
Three Steps to Coin Selection: Avoid 90% of the pitfalls, relying on these three steps
Step 1: Only focus on active coins; don’t touch lifeless ones no matter how cheap.
Every time I select a coin, the first thing I do when I open the exchange is to pull up the recent half-month gainers list, throwing coins that have surged over 10% in a single day and whose volume suddenly triples into my watchlist.
The reason is simple: only coins that attract capital will have fluctuations and opportunities to make money.
In 2018, I fell into a big pit: I bought a '90% drop' altcoin for 10,000 USDT, thinking it was 'cheap enough', but it fluctuated less than 1% daily. After half a year, I lost on fees and eventually cut my losses. I’ve realized now: a lifeless coin is like a store with no customers; no matter how cheap, you can't make money.
Now my watchlist never exceeds 10 coins, all of which are recent active mainstream coins and second-tier blue chips. For example, recently SOL surged over 8% for three consecutive days, so I added it to my watchlist, later catching a 30% rally and making 23,000 USDT. Remember: where the funds are, there are opportunities.
Step 2: Trend is King, enter the market only when the monthly MACD golden cross appears
I stopped messing around with technical indicators a long time ago; now I only look at one: the monthly MACD golden cross. If the golden cross hasn't appeared, I won't touch it no matter how it bounces; once it forms, then I consider entering.
During the bull market in 2021, I avoided countless 'false rebounds' using this strategy. At that time, BTC dropped from 60,000 to 30,000, and many people shouted 'pick the bottom', but I saw that the monthly MACD was still a death cross and held back. When the monthly golden cross formed and BTC rose to 40,000, I entered the market. Although I didn't catch the bottom, I seized the subsequent rise to 69,000, making back the previous loss of 50,000 USDT.
'Don't think about picking the bottom' is the most painful lesson of the decade. People who always feel 'it's at the bottom' usually buy halfway down. Enter the market when the trend comes; you might not catch the 'head of the fish', but you can steadily eat the 'body of the fish', and that’s enough.
Step 3: Precise Buying Points, the 60-day moving average is the 'death line'
Choose active coins, wait for the monthly golden cross, the last step is to wait for the buying point — price retraces to the 60-day moving average + increased volume, this is my heavy position signal.
Last year, ETH rose from 1,200 USD to 2,000 USD, retracing to the 60-day line three times, and I added positions each time. On the third retracement, the price fell to 1,600 USD (near the 60-day line), and the volume suddenly increased to double that of the previous day. I decisively added 30,000 USDT, which later rose to 2,400 USD, making a profit of 48,000 USDT.
If it's not at this position, I'd rather stay out. In 2022, SOL was 5% away from the 60-day line, and I couldn't resist entering early, only to see it fall back to the 60-day line. Fortunately, I stopped my losses in time and didn't lose a lot. Now I remember: even waiting for 1% is worth it; the market isn't short of opportunities, just patience.
Trading discipline: more important than selecting coins, it's the 'life-saving talisman'
Hold online, exit offline
Now my holding logic is one: if the price is above the 60-day moving average, I hold; if it falls below, I exit. No matter how good the previous rise was or how the community shouts 'good news', if it breaks below the 60-day line, I admit defeat.
Last year, a coin rose from 5 USD to 15 USD, I made a good profit, but the day it fell below the 60-day line, I cleared everything without hesitation. Later, it dropped to 3 USD, and those in the community who 'held on' lost 80% of their capital. This rule has saved me at least 20 times, avoiding countless deep traps.
Stepwise profit-taking: don’t think about 'eating the entire fish'
I used to be greedy and wanted to 'eat the whole fish', resulting in 100% profit decreasing to only 20%. Now I've learned my lesson:
Profit 30%, exit half of the position, secure the profits;
Profit 50%, then sell half of the remaining, recoup most of the principal;
Finally, leave 25% of the position to follow the trend, dragging with a trailing stop-loss.
Last time with BNB I relied on this tactic: entered at 100 USD, sold half at 130 USD, sold another half at 150 USD, and finally let 25% of my position ride up to 180 USD before taking profits. Total profit was 20% more than a one-time exit. Remember: how much you earn is determined by the market; protecting profits is something you can control.
Immediate stop-loss if it falls below the 60-day line, no exceptions
This is a hard rule earned through liquidation. Ten years ago, during my first liquidation, I fantasized about a 'rebound' after breaking a key level, resulting in a loss from 5,000 USDT to 0. Now, no matter how much I lose, if it breaks the 60-day line, I will stop-loss; at most, it’s a bad day, which is better than liquidation.
Last month with AVAX, when it fell below the 60-day line I lost 800 USDT, followed the discipline to stop-loss, then it dropped another 40%. Many people lost and cursed, but with the remaining money, I invested in other coins and had already made it back.
Ten years of experience: mechanical operation is the way for retail investors to survive
Many people think this method is too 'mechanical' and not like a 'master's' approach. But I've seen too many 'technical experts' get liquidated and 'informed insiders' lose everything — the cruelest scythe in the crypto world cuts down those who are 'overly clever'.
My method can last ten years, and the core is not about precision, but about:
Reduce decision-making frequency: only look at the monthly MACD and the 60-day line, no need to struggle daily over 'buy or sell';
Block emotional interference: no matter how high it rises or how low it falls, operate by the rules, like a machine without emotions;
Accept imperfection: don’t pick the bottom, don’t escape the top, don’t eat the entire fish, only earn what you understand.
The 130,000 USDT in my account is not based on one profitable trade, but accumulated through countless 'small profits + no big losses'. The market always has opportunities, but most people endlessly repeat the mistake of 'chasing gains and holding losses'.
If you can understand these, post the 'Three Steps to Coin Selection' and 'Trading Discipline' on your screen, and read it every day. At least you can avoid the pitfalls I fell into ten years ago. Don't believe it? That's okay; the market will teach you — but I hope you won't have to suffer losses of hundreds of thousands of USDT to understand these principles.
The path to making money in crypto is not in 'secrets' but in 'execution'. If you can mechanically follow these rules, you surpass 90% of retail investors. If you feel your execution isn't up to par, consider following Su Xiaowan and learn to operate step by step.