Summary of Market Insights on August 1, #美联储利率决议

Powell's Hawkish Expectations Suppress the Market, Deep V Recovery Fails to Break Through Range Structure

Today's cryptocurrency market continues to exhibit a volatile pattern overall, with BTC and ETH repeatedly oscillating near key resistance levels, reflecting strong short-term speculative sentiment. Despite a clear 'Deep V Structure' rebound yesterday, the recovery failed to break through the resistance area, indicating that the market has yet to escape the range-bound oscillation pattern.

Brief Review of the Macroeconomic Situation:

The U.S. core PCE data for June is generally hawkish, with the annual rate below expectations but the monthly rate rebounding, showing that inflationary pressures still exist;

CME data shows that the probability of no interest rate cut in September has risen from 55% to 58.8%, further weakening market expectations for rate cuts;

The White House, in conjunction with five departments, released a cryptocurrency strategy report, reiterating that it will not promote CBDCs, encouraging the development of private stablecoins, and emphasizing that the U.S. must maintain global leadership in on-chain finance, which is a long-term positive for industry development;

Market attention is shifting to the issue of Powell's succession, with political maneuvering becoming a dominant force.