Ualifi Araújo
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Bullish
IN MY OPINION...
The Economic data came out good, let's take a look at them...
1. Core PCE Price Index (Monthly - Jun)
Current: 0.3%
Projection: 0.3%
Previous: 0.2%
It came in line with expectations. Although it rose slightly compared to the previous month, it was not significant enough to be considered bad (as most are saying).
2. Core PCE Price Index (Annual - Jun)
Current: 2.8%
Projection: 2.7%
Previous: 2.8%
This came slightly above the projection, but did not increase compared to the previous data. This shows stability in inflation, which is a positive point, especially after Powell's speech yesterday. Just the fact that there is no acceleration is already a good sign for Powell.
3. Initial Jobless Claims
Current: 218 thousand
Projection: 222 thousand
Previous: 217 thousand
Here is where most of the confusion I saw about the data lies, let's go...
It came above the previous one, which many say is BAD, but anyway, we weren't expecting it to come in lower, it's no coincidence that the projection was 222K. So, in my opinion, once people better understand the data we had, the market should improve.
By the end of the afternoon, we will still have the Fed's Balance Sheet, so it is still wise to keep an eye on this last data, but I think the worst has already passed.
The scenario that is being constructed here is enough for an interest rate cut in SEPTEMBER, Powell said he hasn't decided, but we are seeing that around him people have started to let go of him, let's see how long he can hold on. Especially if the next inflation data also comes under control.
The Economic data came out good, let's take a look at them...
1. Core PCE Price Index (Monthly - Jun)
Current: 0.3%
Projection: 0.3%
Previous: 0.2%
It came in line with expectations. Although it rose slightly compared to the previous month, it was not significant enough to be considered bad (as most are saying).
2. Core PCE Price Index (Annual - Jun)
Current: 2.8%
Projection: 2.7%
Previous: 2.8%
This came slightly above the projection, but did not increase compared to the previous data. This shows stability in inflation, which is a positive point, especially after Powell's speech yesterday. Just the fact that there is no acceleration is already a good sign for Powell.
3. Initial Jobless Claims
Current: 218 thousand
Projection: 222 thousand
Previous: 217 thousand
Here is where most of the confusion I saw about the data lies, let's go...
It came above the previous one, which many say is BAD, but anyway, we weren't expecting it to come in lower, it's no coincidence that the projection was 222K. So, in my opinion, once people better understand the data we had, the market should improve.
By the end of the afternoon, we will still have the Fed's Balance Sheet, so it is still wise to keep an eye on this last data, but I think the worst has already passed.
The scenario that is being constructed here is enough for an interest rate cut in SEPTEMBER, Powell said he hasn't decided, but we are seeing that around him people have started to let go of him, let's see how long he can hold on. Especially if the next inflation data also comes under control.
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