Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent statements have attracted widespread attention, revealing both his assessment of the current economic situation and providing the market with new expectations regarding future policy directions.

Regarding the relationship between tariffs and inflation, Powell explicitly stated that it is still too early to assess the specific impact of tariffs on inflation. However, he also pointed out that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has begun to emerge and is expected to become more evident in the upcoming inflation data. At the same time, he mentioned that the transmission process of tariffs to prices may be slower than previously anticipated.

In terms of policy response, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve will respond to the inflationary pressures brought by tariffs without raising interest rates, which has alleviated market concerns about rate hikes.

It is worth noting that Powell's evaluation of the tax policies related to the 'Big Beautiful Tax Law' is quite straightforward; he believes that these policies do not have special stimulative effects. In addition, regarding the costs of changes in government (debt) interest rates, he indicated that the Federal Reserve will not take them into consideration.

These statements not only reflect the Federal Reserve's considerations of current economic variables but also, to some extent, influence the market's judgments about future economic directions and policy adjustments, especially making the possibility of a rate cut in September more uncertain. #鲍威尔谈话后市场调整降息预期