In the early morning, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as the market expected, continuing a "wait-and-see" attitude. This result was not surprising, but it raised considerable concerns among investors:

"Does not cutting interest rates mean the market will cool down?"

It's actually not the case. In fact, this "stability" is more like a brewing period before a new round of market initiation.

Since September last year, the Federal Reserve's policy has quietly shifted towards a path of interest rate cuts. Although they are currently holding steady, the direction is already clear, just like the change of seasons—since spring has already arrived, it won't easily return to the cold winter.

Especially with interest rates unchanged for six consecutive months, the probability of cutting rates in September naturally increases. Many times, the so-called "bad news has landed" is instead a signal for the market to turn from weak to strong.

The market is fluctuating, but the main funds are still supporting it, and the technical analysis still shows support.

Recently, BTC and ETH's movements have shown a typical "fluctuating wash" pattern: drops at night, repairs during the day, with multiple days of spike performance.

Bitcoin quickly rebounded after hitting a low of $11,580 last night;

Ethereum rebounded from $3,675 to the day's high.

This round of spiking volatility, although thrilling, also reveals that there is still significant support power below, indicating that the market has not fully turned bearish.

Key technical reference points:

BTC support area: $115,000–$116,000

Short-term resistance: $118,000–$119,000

ETH support range: $3,600–$3,660

Upper short-squeeze risk level: $3,880–$3,900

During this high volatility phase, being "still" is actually the best operational strategy; patiently waiting for direction choice.

Altcoins still appear weak, with no obvious correlation rotation; the market is in a washing phase.

In the recent spike, mainstream coins rebounded first, while altcoins continued to be sluggish, a typical state of "the rebound cannot keep up, the drop is eager to fall." This trend indicates:

Altcoins have not yet started to rotate, and are still in the phase of cleaning up floating capital.

But this does not mean there are no opportunities. The truly worthwhile directions to layout are becoming increasingly clear.

The next potential mainline: ETF concept coins are becoming the market focus.

The current market focus is clearly concentrated on the **"spot ETF expectations" logic, especially the mainstream coins and Meme coins that have already submitted applications**:

Mainstream coins that have submitted ETF applications include:

SOL, XRP, LTC, ADA, AVAX, APT, SUI, MOVE, TRX

At the same time, in the MEME sector:

DOGE, TRUMP, BONK, PENGU have also submitted applications.

Especially for SOL, whose ETF application has been delayed twice by the SEC, which has further strengthened market expectations; meanwhile, XRP's ETF has now entered the "public opinion collection stage," indicating that formal approval may be closer than expected.

It is expected that September to October 2025 will become an important time window for concentrated ETF approvals.

Once approved, these assets will enter institutional funds pools and become the preferred choice for passive allocation, leading coins will welcome a new round of valuation reassessment.

The key coins I am currently focusing on are:

$XRP:

Currently forming a standard "double bottom" structure, with a key neckline at $3.25; if broken, it is expected to start a new round of upward movement.

Support range at $3.05–$3.10, the volume structure is robust, with clear support below. Target: $3.50+

$ENA:

Benefiting from stablecoin policy advantages, it has recently surged strongly. The current structure is solid; if there is a pullback to the key support range, consider entering in batches for the next TP1.

$DOGE:

Bottom formation is gradually becoming clear, signs of a pullback ending are emerging, and sentiment indicators are warming up.

If a reduction in volume and a pullback occurs again, consider building positions in batches and waiting for a new round of sentiment rebound.

$BSTR:

Belongs to low market cap potential coins, with recent trends showing a "strong push-back" style surge. The project model is similar to WLFI, and the main funds have had continuous listings, worth further observation.

Summary:

On the surface, the market seems calm, but there are undercurrents.

Although the Federal Reserve has not acted, the entire monetary policy has entered the **"eve of interest rate cuts" stage**, leaving a huge expectation space for the market.

Current strategy is still clear:

Heavy positions in ETF concepts, focusing on strong coins with clear structure and solid logic.

Maintain positions, control the rhythm, and don't get washed out; this is the winning strategy in this round of fluctuating market.