In recent days, the crypto market has been tense. A series of macro factors are interwoven, and market risks are rapidly escalating, especially the three core events below, which every investor should pay close attention to:
Tariff policies may land tonight, and a trade war between the U.S. and Europe looms.
Starting tomorrow (August 7), the U.S. 'reciprocal tariff' policy may be officially implemented, re-imposing additional tariffs on 92 countries, with some categories facing rates as high as 250%. Trump has strongly stated that he will impose comprehensive taxes on drugs, chips, and other goods exported to the EU, and the market generally expects this to trigger a new round of global trade tensions.
The stock market and crypto space may be affected by a tightening liquidity chain reaction;
A large amount of risk-averse capital is flowing to stable assets like gold;
The risk appetite for crypto assets may be suppressed in the short term.
Conclusion: Major negative news, short-term pressure on the market.
Bitcoin's computing power hits a new high, but the price remains stagnant?
Bitcoin's overall network computing power continues to hit new records, seemingly indicating a stronger network, but actually hiding a crisis:
Mining costs are rising, profit margins are shrinking;
Some small and medium-sized miners are facing survival pressure and may choose to cash out, forming short-term selling pressure;
The current price has not effectively broken through key resistance areas, investors need to be highly vigilant about the 'mining profit—price pressure' dual impact.
Conclusion: Negative bias is strong, price support has uncertainty.
Interest rate cut expectations are rising, but 'good news has not been realized' is difficult to save the current situation.
Against the backdrop of high inflation pressure and a cooling global economy, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are rising. However:
Although it is a potential positive, it has not yet truly landed;
The current market is at a sensitive point, high-level fluctuations and low trading activity lead to a cautious emotional sentiment;
Investor confidence is insufficient, making it difficult to form a trend upward in the short term.
Conclusion: Neutral stance, need to wait for catalysts to land.
BTC analysis: Is a rebound brewing amidst high-level fluctuations? Pay attention to short-term critical levels.
Bitcoin closed the previous trading day with a long lower shadow bearish candle, reflecting that while bears have the advantage, bulls also have strong defense at key support levels.
After multiple tests of 113000 USD, strong buying pressure absorbed it;
If it can continue to oscillate upwards, it may challenge the 114545 USD resistance level;
RSI and Bollinger Bands are in a repair state, short-term rebound momentum still exists, but breakthroughs need to be observed with trading volume.
Support levels: 112884, 111655 Resistance levels: 114545, 115248 Suggestion: Cautious low buying, do not blindly chase up.
ETH analysis: Whale capital layout vs. ETF outflow exist in contradiction.
Ethereum currently stands firm at 3545 USD support, but the upward structure is still insufficient, mainly focusing on several trends:
The pullback only touched the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, indicating that the technical adjustment is not yet sufficient;
Recently, 14 whale wallets collectively bought 3.16 billion USD worth of ETH, injecting long-term confidence into the market;
However, the continuous outflow of ETF funds has put short-term pressure on prices;
ETH's current rebound target is set at 3672 USD, waiting for the 5-day moving average to stabilize for confirmation.
Support levels: 3568, 3488 Resistance levels: 3672, 3737 Suggestion: If the support holds during a pullback, consider trying with light positions, paying attention to ETF fund movements.
BlackRock transfers BTC and ETH to Coinbase, is it dumping or reallocating?
The world's largest asset management firm BlackRock has been frequently active recently: transferring a large amount of its ETF assets to Coinbase for custody;
Widely interpreted by the market as selling in batches;
If BlackRock continues to sell after the U.S. stock market opens, it may trigger a new round of market adjustments.
It is worth noting: The reduction behavior of these 'top players' is often not a short-term action, but may continue for a whole cycle.
Conclusion: Short-term negative, mid-long term needs to assess market sentiment.
The altcoin season is coming, beware of the 'sharp rise → halving' cycle trap.
During the market fluctuations, funds are flowing into altcoins and meme coins.
MYX surged 18 times in three days, then quickly halved out;
BTC's market cap ratio continues to decline, the 'altcoin season' quietly unfolds;
Popular meme coins like TROLL, HOUSE, NEET have short-term explosions, but mainstream coins and platform coins are still in adjustment, indicating limited 'real money' in the market.
The secondary market trading sentiment is sluggish, and the 'profit effect' is difficult to sustain; many investors have shifted from 'tenfold fantasies' to 'praying to break even.'
Strategic suggestions: Seize shorting opportunities during declines, prioritize altcoin air coins.
The overall market is currently weak, suitable for focusing on the following shorting opportunities:
Excessive increase (5-10 times increase in the past two months);
No real applications, only speculation concepts;
Market cap is inflated (hundreds of millions but no real transactions);
Institutions show signs of selling, new coins have not yet experienced a significant drop.
Current bearish target examples: Yesterday's top three in growth (magic, vine, kernel)
RGB new investment opportunity: Could it be the next 'hundred times project'?
The market is highly focused on the potential market cap coin RGB:
Total supply of 21 million coins, estimated initial market cap is only 21 million USD;
According to historical experience, new investments can yield 100 - 1000 coins per investment;
If the future valuation breaks through 1 USD per coin, a single new investment can yield up to 1000 USD;
The current cost of new investments (Gas fee) is around 1 USD, with strong participation.
The project team Bitlight Labs is seen as the leader in this track, and the project development still needs to follow up on ecological construction.
Summary: The main market has reached a 'choice moment,' cautious responses are the best strategy.
The current market is at a critical node of bull-bear confrontation:
Tariffs and BlackRock's selling bring negative impacts;
Interest rate cut expectations and rising computing power provide mid-term support;
Volatility of various assets has intensified, and emotional changes are drastic.
Operational suggestions:
Mainstream coins primarily use short-term strategies, do not blindly chase up;
Short-selling opportunities for altcoins;
When investing in new projects, pay attention to cost control, do not heavily invest all at once.
Overall, the current crypto market is at a typical 'critical point' stage. External macro risks are rising, and internal capital battles are fierce, potentially facing considerable volatility pressure in the short term. At this time, risk control and rhythm control are more important than chasing highs:
For mainstream coins, focus on support level gains and losses, suitable for high sell low buy, quick entries and exits;
For altcoins, the shorting opportunity after a rebound may offer better cost-performance, beware of a waterfall after a sharp rise;
For new investment opportunities, be sure to try small amounts, reasonably control participation costs and profit expectations.
Remember this: The real winner is often not the one who makes the most, but the one who 'lives the longest.'
In the current market, uncertainty far outweighs certainty; cautious operation and being adaptable are the most prudent strategies at this stage.
