FOMC Rate Decision – July 30, 2025

The Fed has held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting. This pause was widely expected by markets. CME Group+1Investing.com+1Wikipedia+15Business Insider+15Reuters+15

Notably, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented, marking the first time since 1993 that two governors opposed the decision. Both favored a 25 bps rate cut. Investopedia+8Reuters+8EY+8

Despite political pressure from former President Trump asking for cuts, Chair Powell emphasized the Fed’s independence, giving no signs of imminent easing. The Wall Street Journal+11Axios+11The Australian+11

📌 Key Insights

Inflation remains slightly above the Fed’s 2% target and economic growth has softened, making policymakers cautious. Federal Reserve+15Business Insider+15The Australian+15

The Fed still projects at least one rate cut later in 2025, but the path forward is data-dependent, notably on inflation and employment metrics. Business Insider+4Investors.com+4Schwab Brokerage+4

Market expectations for a September cut cooled: the probability dropped from ~65% to 48% after today’s comments. Investors.com

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