The Federal Reserve in the early hours of today kept rates unchanged as expected, once again 'maintaining the interest rate'.
Many people's first reaction is: 'It's over, is there going to be a big drop?' In fact, it's not that simple.
'Not cutting rates' = bearish? Wrong, this is actually the prelude to a turning point in the market.
Since September last year, the Federal Reserve has already embarked on the path of rate cuts - although they talk tough and act slowly, the direction has long been set. Just like the change of seasons, when spring arrives, it will not suddenly jump back to winter; the rhythm of rate cuts is still coming.
Moreover, six months of silence indicates that we are closer to rate cuts. If rates are not cut in July, the probability in September becomes even higher. When the 'bearish news truly lands', it often marks the key point for market turning.
Looking at the technical side: although the market has been a roller coaster, the support below is still there.
The recent trends of BTC and ETH are quite interesting: a crash at night, a rebound during the day, repeated spikes, typical of a volatile washout. Last night, BTC briefly dropped to around 11,580 and quickly rebounded, while ETH also pulled back from 3,675 to its daily high, indicating that the support below is still present and the market has not completely turned bearish.
Short-term support levels to watch:
#BTC: 115-116 area support, 118-119 is short-term resistance
#ETH: 3600-3660 area support, 3880-3900 may break down to entice shorts
At this stage, it's not a good time to act; observing is the strategy.
Regarding altcoins: this wave of mainstream coins slightly retraced, and altcoins fell first. However, during the rebound, altcoins did not follow much, a typical case of 'altcoins not rotating, first it's a washout'.
Yesterday I spent the day advising Meow fans not to easily run away - the coins in your hands have already doubled in the early stages, so a 20% pullback is normal, don't get washed out! For example, ETH regained 3,800 this morning, and #BONK also gained momentum alongside SOL today; most coins will move later.
The key is: don't run around, the critical thing is to pick the right coins and hold on.
So where are the opportunities? I'm focused on these types of coins
Currently, the hotspots of speculation are focused on the spot ETF concept. The altcoins worth noting in this round are concentrated in mainstream coins that have 'submitted ETF applications' and the MEME sector:
✅ Mainstream coins: SOL, XRP, LTC,$ADA #AVAX, APT, #SUI, MOVE, TRX
✅ MEME coins: #DOGE, TRUMP, BONK, #PENGU
The SEC has delayed SOL's ETF twice, but market expectations are even stronger. XRP has even entered the 'public comment period', and the approval rhythm for the ETF is expected to be advanced. September to October of this year is likely to be a window for the intensive approval of this batch of ETFs.
If this wave is truly approved, these coins will be directly included in the capital pool, becoming passive allocation targets, and their leading position will be more stable.
Alright, let's continue, today I'll unify the logic of the coins I'm currently focusing on:
📌 #XRP: The double bottom structure is clear, the focus is on breaking the 3.25 neckline.
The 4-hour chart structure is very clear, with support stable in the 3.05-3.10 range and decent volume. As long as it doesn't break down, the next target looks towards 3.50+.
📌 $VIRTUAL : Meow sister mentioned this before, currently 1.265 support is being tested repeatedly, and MACD divergence is evident. This could be the third wave of a small-level rise after three spike supports, with previous rises of 104% and 55%, aiming for around 30% this time.
📌 $DOGE : Bottom structure formed, pullback may end or welcome the next round of rebound.
The sentiment indicators are warming up, pay attention to whether the next pullback shrinks in volume to stop the decline, suitable for building positions in batches.
📌#BSTR: Low market cap potential stock, with a strong upward push.
The project background is close to $WLFI micro-strategy play, long-term buying wlfi and usd1. The structure is clear, with main funds neatly on the list; observation can continue.
Summary: The current situation seems calm, but there are undercurrents. The Federal Reserve's policy has entered the 'countdown to rate cuts', the liquidity direction has not changed, and the crypto market is just accumulating strength.
Don't be afraid of short-term volatility, the main line is clear: focus on ETF concepts + strong coins with clear technical structures, hold on tight and steady, not getting washed out is the biggest victory.
That's it for the article! If you are confused in the crypto world, consider planning and harvesting with me!
