This morning I received a business partner at the company. Coincidentally, he has also been looking at the cryptocurrency market for half a year this year. He entered the market at a good time and made more profit than his company's net profit in half a year with spare cash. While we were having tea, we happened to talk about my reduction of holdings in a certain cryptocurrency this morning. He asked me what I was thinking: First of all, I am the kind of person who considers a new cryptocurrency as a loss if it goes to zero. Why would I place an order for tens of thousands of units around 0.06? If I firmly believe this is the bottom, why did I sell at this point?
I explained a bit, and I'll also share it with everyone here:
1. I originally budgeted 2000 USDT to get into this cryptocurrency, so I planned to buy 10,000 spot at a price between 0.07 and 0.08, and open more than 10,000 contracts to ensure that I wouldn't get liquidated on either side, which means a basic position of 20,000 to secure it. The reason I placed an order around 0.06 is that a few days ago, the contract had a spike into this area, and I predicted this might be a temporary bottom. Plus, in just a few days, there was a breakdown test on the weekend, about 30% away from the daily line. So I placed an order at 0.06 with a limited stop loss of 0.059. I also considered that if it broke through, my 10,000 spot and 10,000 basic position would still be safe, and it wouldn't have much long-term impact.
2. After the two days over the weekend, the market rebounded smoothly. I reduced my position by 90% with a cost above my position, achieving the purpose of my order: cashing out the principal and increasing my basic position. The current situation is that I haven't moved my spot, the contract has become a safety net of 20,000, and my basic position has become 30,000. Furthermore, I've extracted 90% of the 2000 chips I budgeted for this cryptocurrency, which means I currently have a position of 30,000 with almost no investment. The extra chips from arbitrage can be exchanged for about 20,000 spot at any time (actually, I'm still observing; if it breaks below 0.06, I can buy 30,000 more). So I am currently ensuring safety, and under the predetermined budget, I already have a position of 50,000. I sacrificed 90% of the profit from guessing the bottom, in exchange for a long-term position growth of 2.5 times without further investment. This is what I chose.
I explained my reasoning to my friends and thought I would share it with everyone. Although everyone's thinking is different, it’s always beneficial to learn from each other.